'chained these 12 years..'

[pippin_999]

> Talisman:
> There is no justification for saying *even* Sluggy.  Indeed, Sluggy 
> is the *only* non-insider to use the Order name.

Pippin:
Snape uses it in conversation with Bella and Narcissa. It can't be
much of a secret if Voldemort's people know about it, and after
all the Ministry is, er, riddled with them.

Surely Slughorn was approached re horcrux related memories
when Dumbledore discovered the existence of the diary, if not
sooner. But if Voldemort really believes that no one knows about
his horcruxes, then Sluggy is not in danger because of that 
conversation, which Voldemort has probably forgotten about.
It didn't yield any information he didn't have already. The
danger will only arise if Dumbledore makes use of the memory,
and starts hunting for horcruxes, at which time Voldemort
will start wondering what put Dumbledore on his track. 

Sluggy's attempt to make it look as if he'd been abducted
by DE's would obviously not fool real DE's, so it's clear he was
hiding from Dumbledore, not them. 

Talisman:
> As for Fudge. Ha. 
> 
> Fudge is a parnoid idiot who thinks DD wants his job. He prefers to 
> think DD is telling tales of LV's return, just to make trouble for 
> him (OoP Chpt. 4, p 71) and harbours shadowy fears that DD may be 
> assembling a mutinous band to effect a coup d'etat. 

Pippin:
Idiot, yes. Paranoid, no. His fear that he would lose his job if Voldemort
had returned was quite rational. Fudge is the sort of incompetent who 
succeeds to high office when some great crisis is deemed to have
passed and the world is back to normal, ie safe for mediocrity. 
The demands of genius are wearisome. Why do you think Dumbledore
hides behind his barmy old codger persona? It was actually quite
clever of Fudge to turn it against him. 

It was of course very clever of Jo to have Harry assume at the end of
OOP the same sort of delusory thinking that Fudge got  shaken
out of, blaming someone else for his troubles instead of facing up to the
fact that he'd been wrong and stupid.

Talisman: 
> Late in the year, when DD claims the DA as his personal organization, 
> Fudge is all to happy to identify the student group as DD's agents of 
> revolution.
> 
> "`Then you *have* been plotting against me!' he yelled"(Chpt.27, p. 
> 618).

Pippin:
Fudge was referring to proof that Dumbledore was training a group in 
offensive magic. Even Dumbledore could not take over the WW with
nothing but a handful of spies. But Fudge definitely knew about *them.*

Or are you claiming that "the number of useful spies" Fudge referred to
in PoA were just figments of Fudge's imagination and had no connection
with the actual network run by Dumbledore? ::boggles::

Talisman:
> Moody had already retired of his own volition, prior to Year 4; his 
> retirement was totally unrelated to events occurring in Year 5.
> 

Pippin:
IIRC there was an incident involving a carriage clock which Moody
thought was a suspicious parcel. Now who would arrange something
like that? 

As for the others, Fudge could hardly sack two aurors for assisting
in the rescue of six students and the capture of several Death Eaters,
just because they'd refused to turn in an innocent man. No, there's
only one thing to do about such insubordination: pin a medal on it
and kick it upstairs. But Scrimgeour was brilliant: he found them 
plum posts which Dumbledore can't possibly complain about, how
can he not want students and Muggles to be protected? But they are as
far away from the Ministry water coolers as they can be.

And Scrimgeour will know they aren't subverting ministry interests,
because when it comes to protecting Hogwarts and Muggles from
Voldemort, Dumbledore's interests and the Ministry's are the same.

> > Pippin:
> > And Ginny just evaporated, did she?
> 
> 
> Talisman:
> Surely you can't be suggesting that there are only two possible 
> explanations for an AWOL student: Heir of Slytherin Abduction or 
> Evaporation.  This line of inquiry appears to be swirling around the 
> great porcelain bowl...

Pippin:
I'm suggesting that there is a spell, such as that which powers the
Weasley clock, which can be used to determine whether someone is
in mortal danger or not.

> Talisman:
> There was no *wind blowing against Malfoy.*  To what do you refer? 

Pippin:
To the 'hailstorm of owls' from the Hogwarts board of governors, asking
Dumbledore to return, accusing Malfoy of threatening their families, and
to Malfoy's ouster from said board. 

> Pippin:
> > Remember, most people would rather believe the chamber 
> > does not exist, so nobody is going to be demanding a lot
> > of explanations provided the attacks stop.
> 
> Talisman:
> There is no canon to support the idea that people were denying the 
> existence of the Chamber.  Quite the contrary. Binns is the 
> only...er...entity who scoffs.
> 
> There is no basis for asserting that families didn't need both 
> explanations and assurances regarding their children's safety.
> 
> Certainly those whose loved ones had been petrified would want 
> answers and accountability.

Pippin:
They were Muggles, and not in a position to demand anything. Draco
mentions that the troubles in the school have not been publicized in
the DP either. 

Pippin