'chained these 12 years..'

[Talisman]

--- In the_old_crowd at yahoogroups.com, "carolynwhite2" 
<carolynwhite2 at ...> wrote:

>Just plodding my way through again, and have been struck by this line
>in the 2nd prophecy. Harry never recounts this prophecy word for word
>to DD, only the gist of it, so only Harry knows this is what Trelawny
>actually said. There isn't a handy Pensieve memory as in the first
>prophecy.

Talisman staggers in at ~3:550am:

This is old ground for my inflamed brain. I know I've written it up 
with lot's more citation, but can't recall where it is, just now. 

This is all off the top of my head, with a few easy cites added. I 
know you'll all be heart-broken to hear that I lost an unfortunately 
unsaved version earlier this evening--thanks to an unexpected 
Microsoft closure.  

So, things are missing--and at this point in the night I'm not proof-
reading--or likely even coherent--but here's at you:  

As far as I am concerned, the Second Prophecy has always been, not 
only evidence of DD's handiwork, but a massive broadside to Rowling's 
Muggle-pacifying doublespeak nonsense about the Prophecy #1 having 
only come about because Voldemort *chose* to believe it--and act on 
it.

Even more important than the fact that DD never got the verbatim 
version (well, he didn't need it, did he? He planted it in Trelawney 
the same way he planted #2, i.e. possession or some yet-to-be-
disclosed quasi-possession/ventriloquism technique) is the fact that 
Harry FORGETS ALL ABOUT IT--as soon as Hermione and Ron tell him 
Buckbeak is for the chop--and BEFORE he can tell them about it (PoA 
325).

As a matter of literary fact, the Second Prophecy plays NO part 
whatsoever in the events that unfold the rest of the evening.  It 
plays NO role at all in the decisions made by ANY character.  

It isn't until the NEXT DAY when ALL of the significant events of 
Wormtail's escape are stone cold OVER that Harry recalls the 
prophetic utterance (PoA 426).  By which time Wormtail is off and 
running for Albania.

And, despite it's source, DD neither doubts it nor even seems 
surprised, let alone worried.  "How could Dumbledore take this so 
calmly?" (PoA 426). 

Indeed, all the Second Prophecy turns out to be is a big fat FYI--for 
the observant reader as well as Harry.

>It really has never been explained why Peter did spend 12 years as a
>rat, as far as we know not transforming back to a man at any point.

We are shown that, had Wormtail allowed anyone to know he was still 
alive, loyal DEs would have popped a cap in him for his perceived 
role in LV's downfall.  He's the "double-crosser [who] double-crossed 
them" (PoA 368).

Alternatively, had the law-abiding side of the WW noticed that he was 
still around, it would have raised a lot of sticky questions.  Like, 
do you want your finger back? 

And, maybe a reconsideration of  Black's incarceration.  Hey, maybe 
even a trial.  

Why *would* an innocent man fake his death?  *Who* actually did 
*what* during that fateful showdown?  Let's just have a look at those 
wands, shall we? 

And, once anyone asked for Sirius's two-cents, there would be that 
little matter of who ratted-out the Potters, too. He wouldn't have 
kept quiet to let Wormtail off the hook.

I'm sure Wormtail would also expect DD to want to chat. Little does 
our whiskered friend know that the contents of his poor rodent brain 
have been open all along


>Nor why he hid in the milk jug in Hagrid's hut, apparently waiting
>for something to happen despite the terrible risk of having Lupin and
>Sirius very near by all that year, not to mention a very intelligent
>cat.

I rather think Hagrid had him on ice.  No, I don't believe in 
coincidence. Not in a well-crafted mystery. Not unless your author 
sucks--and Rowling deserves more credit than that, by now.  Plus, 
there is the force of all the rest of the evidence.

Rowling made it clear, in an early interview, that we aren't to think 
Hagrid is stupid.  DD trusts him for a reason.  It's also evident 
that he never leaks info unless it forwards DD's plans that he do so.

(E.g. Between his own creature expertise, the dead roosters, and 
Aragog's knowledge--Hagrid MUST have known the CoS creature was a 
Basilisk--but he keeps mum even when it means a sojourn in Azkaban--
cos it's DD`s plan, isn`t it?  

He never lets slip about Harry's parents being in the Order--or 
describes their efforts against LV, even though he has ample evidence 
of how the Dursleys have portrayed them to Harry all these years.  
Etc.  Nope, his *leaks* are always strategic.  They always advance, 
DD's plans.) 

>The wording of this line of the prophecy would appear to indicate
>that Peter didn't have much choice in the matter. 

He didn't.  He was trapped whichever way he turned.  Facing the DEs, 
the Ministry, or DD, jointly or severally, would have meant his 
ruin.  He couldn't function anywhere in the WW.  He had to hide out.

Did he ever un-transfigure--just for a moment--in the bushes 
somewhere?  Who cares? It wouldn't substantially change his lot.

What he really needed was LV, back, powerful and on his side.  

Rowling means us to accept Sirius's explanation (PoA 370)--that 
Wormtail was hanging around with a wizarding family (albeit as far 
away from the DEs as possible) in order to hear any news of a 
possible LV come back. I won't be surprised at all if we learn how he 
came to be a Weasley pet.

Rowling fixes it so that DD conveniently discloses LV's whereabouts 
to Harry--at the end of year 2--just in time to trickle the info to 
Ron/Scabbers by the onset of year 3.

Alas, Scabbers has insufficient time to pluck up his scant courage 
and make a plan--hard on comes the news that Sirius is running 
loose.  (Yes, DD had a hand in that, too.) 

Thanks to his position in the Weasley household, Scabbers hears all 
about Sirius's ravings, etc.  But, unlike the Weasleys, Wormtail 
knows Sirius isn't out to harm Harry. Oh no, Wormtail knows just 
exactly who Sirius wants to murder.  Him.

Better lie low and let the Ministry take Sirius out of the way before 
he, Wormtail, sets off alone for the continent.

(By the way, I do think International Apparation is illegal (WOMBAT 
III question 7.6)that's why Wormtail and LV hoof it back, too.  Can't 
be setting off any international alarms
) 

Finally though, things just get too hot--he isn't even safe at 
Hogwarts anymore--so Wormtail decides to fake his death, again, and 
head off.

Somehow he ends up in Hagrid's pitcher.  Hmmmm. And Hagrid just 
happens to break a similar pitcher while Hermione is standing close 
by, helpfully ready to pick the other off the shelf....

Uh-huh.

>Someone decided he had a role to play, 
>had to sit and wait it out at someone's command.

Oh, he was part of someone's plan, alright.  Someone who had been 
feeding unwitting Wormy information all along--most recently, and 
importantly, via the Harry/Ron network.

Someone who needed just such an unsuspecting *loaded* tool to bring 
Voldemort back the second time.  

Someone who had previously sent characterless Quirrell to fetch the 
nasty boy back, just so they could throw Harry in his turbaned-
covered path.

You know, make the Dark Lord worry about that Prophecy some more, 
give him a dose of special burning power (which Wormtail would 
explain as it had been explained to Ron via Harry via DD); 

Someone who would tease the Dark Lord with the Philosopher's Stone 
and then destroy it so that if (read *when*) the bugger got a second 
chance, he would come back knowing he had to use an *ancient magic* 
body.  

Yes, someone who instigated the return of the TWT, just specially for 
that year; and then whispered something into nosey info-laden 
Bertha's shell-like ear to set her on the fateful path to Albania, too

Mightn't that make a Dark Lord eager to exploit the happenchance of 
the now-rare, and always dangerous TWT?   Oh, yeah.

Someone who was *as* committed to getting Harry's hot blood into the 
corporeal recipe, as the Prophecy-paranoid Dark Lord was.  Gleam, 
etc. 

Wormtail was surely part of someone's plan.  But he was compelled, 
not commanded.

>And the events in Shrieking Shack II were the catalyst; they broke
>the spell it seems to me.

The events of the SS were a total, professional, Order SpecOp mission.

I hope we don't have to review all that old evidence of Lupin and 
Snape's collusion.  Or how very, totally, consummately, safe Lupin 
was that entire night...do we?

>Possible alternatives:
>- could support ESE! Lupin or ESE!Sirius. Either of them could have
>cursed Peter to the effect that next time he became a rat, he stayed
>a rat until either of them released the spell. Why? Because he can
>reveal that either of them were the ones that really betrayed the
>Potters? If they couldn't get to kill him personally, they could stop
>him speaking out. (It's not clear how good at communicating he is as
>a rat). So, Peter hangs around trying to protect HP, including his
>finest hour hanging on to Goyle's finger. Finally, Frodo-like, he
>sets off for his personal trip to Mt Doom..


ESE!Anyone who could get an AnimagusFreeze curse in (which we should 
have heard of by now, were it ever going to crop up in 7) could as 
easily have snuffed the rat, and would have.


>- much more likely it supports Puppetmaster!DD. Yet another strand to
>his long-range planning, and unlikely to have been discussed in
>advance with Peter. Same scenario, a DD-special protection spell (bit
>like the one he 'arranged' with Lily) which ensures Peter stays a rat
>until he's released. DD fixes for Lupin to be at Hogwarts that year
>as soon as he hears of Sirius' escape, knowing that they are the only
>ones likely to perform the counter-spell. DD has decided that it's
>time little frightened Peter was manipulated into being another chink
>in Voldie's armour when next required.

Right church, wrong pew.  It's Guilty! DD (always said in the most 
affectionate way) all the way.  However, the only things DD did to 
protect Peter were to 1) let Sirius take the fall (which had the 
elegant effect of keeping Sirius from mucking up Harry's foster care, 
too) and 2) steer Wormy into the Weasley bosom--so he could 
unwittingly be pumped with whatever information DD wanted him to 
eventually carry back to Voldemort.

Yes, of course DD had a hand in Sirius's inexplicable escape, too.

It's part of the Malfoy revenge plan.  I believe I've gone over all 
this years ago--but apparently not everyone was listening. ;)

Malfoy gets up off his sexy bad-boy bottom and storms out of 
Hogwarts, at the end of year 2, filled--for the first time--with an 
unholy desire to squash Harry like a flobberworm.

What to do? What to do? Can't just AK the brat.  We all know what 
happened last time someone tried that... Really don't want to try 
anything like it...but still...

Plus, The Malfoy has a position in society to consider.  

How does Malfoy usually effect his plans? A nice cat's paw....

Where might one of those be?

This is where Lucius's old pal Snape slips in, at DD's behest, with a 
helpful little hint about how to piss Black off...and make him head 
for Hogwarts (should he ever...ehem...get the chance)...and just how 
this could resolve Lucius's recent insomnia.

Did Snape tell Lucius about Wormtail? Sure. Unlike Bella, Lucius 
isn't at all unhappy that LV was out of the picture.  He's got no 
zealot's beef with Wormtail--not that Wormtail would know it.  Nope, 
he couldn't care less what happens to Wormtail.  And if using him as 
bait will get Sirius--and so the Dementors--in proximity with scar 
boy, by all means, use him.

In any event, Fudge is Imperio'd (as opposed to DD deciding he is --
alas--not being Imperio'd *this time* during events in Book 5).

Eyes not quite focused, Fudge totters out to Azkaban Fortress--and 
that very same day--Voila! Sirius *somehow* gets free. 

It's amazing how easy it actually is--to escape Azkaban--when the 
Dementors have been instructed to let you out.

I've explaned, long ago, how, if you read PoA, you'll see that the 
Dementors only attack when Harry and Sirius are in the same area.

They never go after Sirius, alone, when he's running around on the 
grounds,etc., all year.

Even though, unlike Sirius's feeble explanation, the Dementors 
clearly demonstrate that they *always* know who Sirius is, even in 
dog form (PoA 352).  

No. Their orders are to wait until Sirius is close to Harry, and then 
to go for Harry--first and foremost Harry--Sirius is strictly 
*afters.*  (See e.g. the Quiddich game where Sirius is in the stands, 
and on the Grounds the night of the SS).

Clearly, the plan is to let the Dementor's take care of Harry, and 
then claim his worse-than-death as unfortunate collateral damage in 
the effort to get that notorious killer, Black.

Safe, effective, and socially acceptable.

>From DD's pov, it's time for Sirius to be out (setting up the next 
phase/Volde-proofing results in OoP, etc.), and for Wormtail to be 
off for Albania.

So, as usual, DD plants the idea, and then uses it to his own 
advantage. Not to mention getting lots of lovely training for Harry.

DD definitely brings Lupin in-house for this mission. The DADA 
postion is always part of DD's plan.

Whatever jinx LV put on it has long been gone.  Either it is (was) 
DD's own brand of *revelatory* jinx, or more likely, DD just outed 
the person in the seat, for his own reasons, by his own cleverness.

The WOMBATS III played to this too.  It reminded test-takers that a 
jinx is the weakest form of negative magic.

Plus, we have seen all series that the reason the DADAs can't stay is 
that their darkest secret is always revealed.  LV didn't set that 
up.  He would never have sent Barty, Jr. in for that.  Clearly it's 
not his jinx at work.

But, it *was* important for him to think his old (non-revelatory) 
jinx was still in effect.

Lupin is Order, and no more evil that the next guy, likely less.  
That's why Snape circulats the WW information.  DD's orders. 

We don't even have reaon to think it actually made any difference to 
Lupin's reputation.  Obviously people know he is a WW or he'd have no 
employment problems.

But, like the Prank, it passes as an excuse for Harry.  And, the fact 
that Lupin leaves, at all, plays to LV's expectations.

Team DD needs to keep up the appearance that LV's jinx still controls 
the seat.  That, and DD wants someone else in the seat next time, too.

Why? Because when LV comes home in a few weeks--all full of planted 
TWT info--he'll rely on his old jinx as an entrée for his faithful 
servant--in order to get Harry's blood--which DD has made him want to 
the exclusion of all else--thanks to the Prophecy plus GH and the 
events of PS/SS (supra).

DD expects the DADA impersonation ruse--which is why he asks Moody to 
take the DADA mission in year 4.

An old, well known, warrior to take the hit.  The ruckus at chez 
Moody is a tocsin call--the plan is off and running.

(Note how LV & Co. must have expected the attack to register on some 
law enforcement system.  Otherwise why make all the exagerated *extra 
ruckus* to make it look like *just crazy old Moody again?*  Yet, by 
doing so, they confirmed to DD, all the more, that the game was 
afoot.)

Rowling is a very slick plot weaver.

DD was expecting the come back, of course.  He arranged it.  He knew 
where LV was and what he was up to, at every step.   Including the 
events in Little Hangleton--where, thanks to Muggle repellant charms--
DD owned a certain Manor, read the local paper, and, till then, 
employed a certain (Hagrid-like) falsely-accused Muggle 
groundskeeper.  

Ah, Riddle Manor. Purchased, I daresay, long before Harry was even 
born.  The perfect stop-over for Dark Lords traveling through 
Britain, who might also be expected to have a sudden interest in 
their father's old bones.

It all fits...like a silver glove.

Talisman, reminding you that history is full of real conspiracies--as 
are 7 book mystery stories.