'chained these 12 years..'

[Talisman]

--- In the_old_crowd at yahoogroups.com, "pippin_999" <foxmoth at ...> 
wrote:
--- In the_old_crowd at yahoogroups.com, "pippin_999" <foxmoth at ...> 
wrote:

> Talisman then: 
> > You may have noticed how easy it was for DD to absolve Sirius, 
>after Sirius's death.  This, though there was no body, and
>there were no witnesses save some DEs, who had their 
>own reasons for killing the putative 
>Potter SK/erstwhile Voldemortian spy.
> 
> Pippin:
> Aren't you forgetting all the other Order Members? Shacklebolt,
> Moody, Tonks and Lupin could all testify that Sirius was fighting on
> their side, not Voldemort's, and Shacklebolt and Tonks, at least
> were considered highly  reliable Ministry employees. Also, that
> Sirius had been at Grimmauld Place all along and could not have
> helped Bella and the others escape from Azkaban.

Talisman:

I think I'm remembering that the Order is an ultra-secret 
organization.  The Ministry doesn't know it exists, and the Order is 
keeping it that way.

Especially with regard to it's Ministry moles, whose infiltration of 
government agencies, the Auror's office most definitely included, is 
a crucial asset.  

Fudge is already  prepared to believe that  DD has a covert  army.  
Anyone identified as one of DD's warrior/operatives isn't going to be 
worth a Squib's curse in future missions. 

That remains true, even after Fudge, himself,  is out of office. 

The Auror /Order members  would be completely compromised (out of 
jobs and possibly in chains) if it were known that they fought with 
DD, or hung out with Sirius at Grimmauld Place.  

"By the way Minister, we knew where Sirius was all year, but we 
didn't tell you because our first loyalty is to DD." 

...

I'll vouchsafe that when Scrimgeour assigned  Kingsley Shacklebolt to 
the Muggle Prime Minister's office, he had no idea--whatsoever--that 
he was planting DD's man there, as well. 

You can re-read OoP from Sirius's death  to the end and then go 
straight on through HBP, and you'll never see so much as a whisper of 
any acknowledgement that any Order member -- Auror or otherwise--was 
at the Ministry of Magic the night of Sirius's death.

Including the newspaper articles.

If Fudge could have claimed that his law enforcement personnel were 
right there, on the scene--fighting LV and helping  recapture the DEs-
-he would have trumpeted it from the rooftops.

But, none of the Order members came to the battle upstairs, did 
they?    And I'll guarantee you, when the ministry personnel arrived 
in the Death Chamber, all they saw were hog-tied DEs.  There wasn't 
an Order member to be found.

Nor any  indication that Sirius was ever there, himself.  

Unless Bella wanted to volunteer that she killed him.  Of course 
being knocked through the Veil by one of Bella's stunning rays 
doesn't actually exonerate anyone of anything.  Moreover,  it's 
extremely unlikely that she would explain the situation to the 
Ministry.  

Bella's Dark Lord is back in power and revealing any part of his 
plans or interests, at the ministry or elsewhere, is the last thing 
she's going to do.

Ditto the rest of the DEs.  I'm sure they all kept their surely 
silence on the way back to the pokey.  It was going to be a very 
short stay, after all.

Nope, it was DD's word that exonerated Sirius.  A word that he kept 
to himself from shortly after GH, until Sirius was safely d.e.a.d.  


> Talisman then:
> > This is exactly the way DD springs Hagrid from Azkaban in CoS: by 
> > *jotting up a little note*--with no other evidence at all.
> 
> Pippin:
> The evidence is that Ginny was attacked and taken into the chamber
> while Hagrid was safely in Azkaban.

Talisman:

All the Ministry really had, as evidence of anything, was a daubed 
note and Ginny temporarily AWOL from her dorm. There wasn't even a  
petrified body, this time.

That's no more evidence than there would be if some kids cooked up a 
stunt to get their pal Hagrid off the hook.

However, by your reasoning, DD shouldn't even have had to write a 
note.  Hagrid should have automatically been freed as soon as the 
rumor of Ginny`s *abduction*  was noised about.  

I'll grant that *no evidence at all* may be a slight overstatement, 
but Hagrid *wasn't* automatically released, and it's clearly DD's 
undisputed version of events--a version which did not involve telling 
what really happened--that swung the gates open, for Hagrid.

Hagrid was put in the pokey because he has a reputation for 
cultivating dangerous pets.  That's what got him fingered the first 
time, too.

Now, as 50 years ago, something is definitely petrifying people, and 
Fudge feels the Ministry has to be seen to be doing something about 
it.

Indeed, Fudge isn`t the only one worried, Hogwarts is *supposedly* on 
the brink of closure, as well.

So, it still seems a little strange that DD only has to write to 
Azkaban--not even eliciting Fudge's agreement--in order to have 
Hagrid released.

Hagrid has been presumed guilty.  You'd think that overcoming this 
presumption would require some sort of explanation.  

But if DD ever explained what the creature was, how it got there, who 
was controlling it, or how it was defeated, I don't recall the 
evidence of it.

How does DD prove that Hagrid had *nothing* to do with the creature ? 

What actually attacked those students? How did the creature get into 
Hogwarts in the first place?  How long had it been there?  Why did it 
become active now?  Who would know how to handle it?

All of the adults in the WW, including everyone involved with law 
enforcement, lived through  Voldemort's earlier domination of their 
society.  Possessed and Imperio-ed people were rampant.  Why wouldn't 
they inquire into whether Hagrid had accomplices: misguided pals, 
willing villains, or magically controlled stooges?

When Riddle wanted to calm things down, he didn't just tell the 
Basilisk to take a nap.  He knew he had to pin it on someone.  
Someone had to be blamed and punished.  The episode had to be 
explicable, so that the WW could feel certain that it knew what had 
happened, and that everything was over. 

In fact there *was* a  truth that would have exculpated Hagrid.  But 
DD doesn't even try to present it.  He claims that it can't be 
proven, while at the same time *advising* Malfoy  "not to go giving 
out any more of Lord Voldemort's old school things" because "Arthur 
Weasley, for one, will make sure they are traced back to you
." (CoA 
337).

Well, if Arthur can trace things back to  Malfoy, why not start now?

Let's consider the evidence they do have:

They have Dobby's testimony. 

 Say what you will, but DD offers Dobby's testimony relevant to the 
*illegal* Hover Charm, when Fudge brings it up during the hearing in 
OoP.  Fudge may have acted as if he were above listening to elf 
testimony, but it clearly shuts down his argument regarding that 
prior *infraction.*

We also see that Hokey's testimony is accepted in the matter of 
Hepzabah Smith's death.  And, when Winky is questioned regarding the 
Dark Mark at the QWC, her testimony has impact, too.

In addition to Dobby's testimony, we still have the Diary, with the 
great fang hole through it.

Not to mention a humongous dead Serpent lying downstairs.

We've got Ginny's testimony, along with dead roosters and blood 
soaked robes (more elf testimony, I suppose).

The truth is that Slytherin's Heir DID have an assistant: Ginny had 
been setting  the Basilik on people, all year.  Sure she was 
possessed, but does DD reveal that?  

No, he claims no one would ever be able to prove she didn't do it of 
her own free will (CoS 336).  Yet, we know that a great many people 
stayed out of Azkaban after Voldemort's fall, specifically by 
claiming that their wills were under magical control.

Moreover, if anyone chose to not to believe that she was possessed 
they would have had to explain how an 11-year-old girl found and 
opened Salazar Slythern's fabled Chamber of Secrets -- within 2 
months of entering the school--let alone how she controlled the 
Basilisk.

Of course Harry can testify, as well.  He can demonstrate how to open 
the chamber.  He can explain what happened to the Basilisk, and the 
great green body is there to support his testimony.

With so much evidence backing the story, I think it rather likely 
that they'd accept that LV had left behind an enchanted Diary.  

The plausibility of Ginny's possession, plus the Riddle Diary, 
itself, (DD could even give the evidence that he's been sitting on 
regarding Riddle's transformation into Voldemort), plus  Harry's 
testimony regarding RiddleMort, plus Dobby's testimony that Malfoy 
planted the Diary, plus Arthur's, regarding the opportunity in 
Flourish and Blotts, would actually be quite a lot of evidence--
certainly by WW standards-- against someone who had already, in the 
past, had to wiggle out of accusations of being a DE.

You'd think it'd be worth a try...

Unless you see that DD really doesn't want the Ministry interfering 
in his projects, which are humming along right on schedule, thank you 
very much.
 
For instance, at this point he's got uses for Malfoy, which don't 
include a stay in Azkaban, just yet...

In any event, by the time DD writes his note to Azkaban, Ginny is 
back, safe and sound, and doesn't require so much as a sip of 
Mandrake potion.  

Yeah, there was a note (in Ginny's handwriting) and yeah, she failed 
to show up for dormitory role call. But she strolled back in before 
breakfast--not the least bit petrified--with nothing to show for her 
adventure that DD seems willing to use as evidence.  Including her 
testimony.

Kid takes a powder for half a day and that proves Hagrid is 
innocent?  I'll bet the Weasley twins went missing for longer than 
that, on a regular basis. 

Even if the board of governors had initially feared the worse, 
wouldn't they reconsider when Ginny reappeared, unharmed, and with no 
real explanation?

Yet, without further inquiry, the Ministry allows Hagrid to go free.  
If any one had been relieved to have Hagrid behind bars, they now 
seem convinced of his total innocence.

This, even though: 

1)There had definitely been child petrifications. 

2) Hagrid was convicted last time, and remained a well known monster-
phile.  

3) There had been no inquiry into the matter of accomplices, no 
probing of the evidence, no explanation of any kind for the 
creature's reappearance, behavior, or--at this point, presumably--
alleged disappearance. 

They're still holding Stan Shunpike on less than that.

Wouldn't Fudge want more assurance that everything was over?  
Wouldn't he want to explain to the WW why no one was being held 
responsible? 

Guess not. Miraculously DD merely had to tell someone--who? the 
dementors? an unnamed warden?-- that they were to release Hagrid post 
haste.  

Apparently DD vouched that Hagrid was innocent of any involvement in 
the petrification cases, someone else was the perp, and never mind 
those silly little details....

I'm telling you, when it comes to Azkaban, if DD wants you out, 
you're out.   

Just ask Snape.

 > Talisman then:
> 
> > When DD said, after, that Sirius's death was his (DD's) fault, he 
> > wasn't kidding.
> 
> Pippin:
> It was his fault for giving Lupin a third chance. 

Talisman:

I can count considerably more than 3 chances--none of which involved 
DD standing over him.  Guess ESE!Lupin is just a bit slow...

...but he's dang lucky, because he'll be able to stay under deep 
cover...all the way through the last book. 

Even the Author won`t know what he's been up to.  ; )
 
> Pippin
> Who thinks the karmic aspect to Sirius's death was that he
> never could bring himself to tell DD why he'd  suspected Lupin

Talisman:

Rowling has called Sirius the most dangerous of the Marauders--more 
dangerous than Wormtail.

Certainly he was very reckless, often thoughtless, somewhat 
hypocritical, and prone to over-rating his own cleverness.  

We will soon learn more about his critical flaws, and see how his 
persistence in them lead to his  *karmic* demise,  just as Barty 
Crouch, Sr., Bertha Jorkins, and Quirrell, etc.  got, in a sense, 
their respective comeuppances. 

I rather think DD gave Sirius a way to make amends for a lot of past 
nonsense, including GH.  A way that helped protect Harry, i.e. by 
Vold-proofing him, at least temporarily.

DD clearly had kept Sirius under tight control, for the last 14 years 
of his life.  Compare this to the wide latitude DD gave Snape, and 
you know enough to see what's coming. 

Talisman