'chained these 12 years..'

[pippin_999]

> Talisman:
> 
> I think I'm remembering that the Order is an ultra-secret 
> organization.  The Ministry doesn't know it exists, and the Order is 
> keeping it that way.
> 
Pippin:
Even Sluggy knows it exists and refers to it by name. Matter of
fact, it was Fudge who first told us about Spymaster!
Dumbledore. Not only that, he tried to recruit Percy to infiltrate.

You don't think it's an *accident* that Moody was forced into
retirement, Tonks got posted to Hogsmeade and Shacklebolt
to the Muggle PM's office? They aren't going to be spying on
the Ministry from there, you know. 

Talisman:
> "By the way Minister, we knew where Sirius was all year, but we 
> didn't tell you because our first loyalty is to DD." 

Pippin:
"By the way Minister, we knew where Sirius was all year, but
we weren't able to tell you. You're familiar with the secret
keeper spell, we believe?"


> > Pippin:
> > The evidence is that Ginny was attacked and taken into the chamber
> > while Hagrid was safely in Azkaban.
> 
> Talisman:
> 
> All the Ministry really had, as evidence of anything, was a daubed 
> note and Ginny temporarily AWOL from her dorm. There wasn't even a  
> petrified body, this time.
> 
> That's no more evidence than there would be if some kids cooked up a 
> stunt to get their pal Hagrid off the hook.

Pippin:
And Ginny just evaporated, did she?

Talisman:
> Hagrid has been presumed guilty.  You'd think that overcoming this 
> presumption would require some sort of explanation.  

Pippin:
No, he was placed in Azkaban merely as a precaution. With the
wind blowing against Lucius Malfoy, Fudge had no reason not to
interfere with Dumbledore's order, (presumably as Head of the
Wizengamot) to let Hagrid go.

Remember, most people would rather believe the chamber 
does not exist, so nobody is going to be demanding a lot
of explanations provided the attacks stop.

<huge snip>
> > 
> > Pippin:
> > It was his fault for giving Lupin a third chance. 
> 
> Talisman:
> 
> I can count considerably more than 3 chances--none of which involved 
> DD standing over him.  Guess ESE!Lupin is just a bit slow...
> 
> ...but he's dang lucky, because he'll be able to stay under deep 
> cover...all the way through the last book. 
> 
> Even the Author won`t know what he's been up to.  ; )

Pippin:
Oh, no. He confesses, a full villain tells all speech,  or ESE!Lupin sinks 
gently to the bottom of the bay. I won't bore you with any such
behind the scenes nonsense. If JKR has somehow managed to
inspire in me the plot of a full blown spy novel which she didn't
write, I shall be far too busy filing off the serial numbers and
writing it myself. :)


> Talisman:
> 
> Rowling has called Sirius the most dangerous of the Marauders--more 
> dangerous than Wormtail.
> 
> Certainly he was very reckless, often thoughtless, somewhat 
> hypocritical, and prone to over-rating his own cleverness.  

Pippin:
But those are the characteristics JKR forgives in youth, at least,
her hero Harry exhibits all of them. Sirius's only tragedy is that
he never got a chance to grow out of them.

Pippin