Handicapping the Next Big Battle

[ftah3]

No: HPFGUIDX 31743

Cindy wrote:
> Based on what I've read in our messages, there seems to be 
agreement 
> that Harry's forces (Good) will triumph over Voldemort's forces 
> (Evil) in the end.  At this point, however, it seems to me that JKR 
> has really stacked the deck against the forces of Good.  

Before I go point-by-point:  even if the deck is stacked, this 
doesn't mean Good will lose.  A lot of the best stories have Good as 
the logistical underdog; but the morality of the story takes it to a 
logical conclusion whereby Good wins.  And so far, nothing to *me* 
suggests that this series is tragic in nature (that it will end 
catastrophically).  

In fact, in all of the books so far, the Good Guys have surmounted 
seemingly impossible odds to win.  Book 1, Harry defeats the 
Quirrell/Volemort Critter by virtue of his and his friends' quick 
wits and creativity and, overall, the power of love, despite the fact 
that he is young, untrained, so much less powerful than QuirrDemort.

Book 2, Harry defeats the Tom Riddle apparition and the Really Big 
Snake despite the mystical power and brute strength they represented 
due to the unexpected advantages of loyalty and faith.

Book 3, belief in oneself, respect and honor help Harry and co. 
defeat the undefeatable Dementors and save Sirius Black.  Belief in 
oneself: thanks to the time-turny confabulation, Harry realizes that 
he *can* call up a powerful Patronus, and does so.  Respect: if 
Harry/Hermy didn't have the requisite respect for the Hippogriff, the 
beastie wouldn't have let them use it to save Black.  Honor: Hermy's 
reputation as an honorable and dedicated student got her the 
privelege of using the time turner; and Harry's/Hermy's honorable 
natures inspired Dumbledore to trust that they wouldn't do anything 
frighteningly disruptive with it when saving Black from the 
Dementor.  

Book 4, rather than outlining as I did above, what book 4 did for me 
was to point out that the complexities underlying the respective 
powers of Harry and Voldemort are greater than is superficially 
obvious.  I got the sense that, more than quantifiable surface power, 
the connection between Harry and Voldemort as well as the power of 
simple choice will be the ultimate scale-tipper in their 'final 
battle.'  

Anyhoo.  So, your decks:

> On Dumbledore's side, we have:
> 
> Dumbledore -- Undoubtedly powerful, but appears to be increasingly 
> weary and old.

Yes, but Obi-Wan was *dead* after the first Star Wars flick, and yet 
his influence on/help to Luke was significant.  Dumbledore, imho, is 
more Wise Man to Harry's Hero than anything else, to whit 
unsubstantials ~ his wisdom, his role model status, his reputation ~ 
will matter more in the end than his physical power.

> Harry, Ron and Hermione -- Still not qualified wizards, having some 
> DADA knowledge but no knowledge of how to attack a dark wizard.  
Both 
> Ron and Hermione have some work to do in DADA.

On the other hand, as we've seen so far there is much, much more to 
fighting the good fight than DADA.  With no DADA background, they 
still 'won' in the first four books (because while they *were* 
learning some useful DADA stuff in PoA & GoF, it was their reliance 
on their natural strengths, and their use of their wits and fledgling 
powers, that served them.  I.e., DADA knowledge would have been/was 
somewhat useful, but other things were even moreso).

Also, they are imminently full of potential.  Plus, they're wild 
cards ~ easily underestimated, but only to the detriment of the bad 
guys.

> Lupin -- Probably talented, but his usefulness wanes with the moon.

Aha!  I can thoroughly disagree with you here!  Lupin's usefulness 
doesn't wane with the moon because...on one hand, if he takes the 
nifty anti-savage-beast potion (erg ~ can't remember what it's 
called), he is an *intelligent* extremely powerful and possibly 
dangerous beast.  Even though he said he spent the full moon curled 
up meekly in his office, that doesn't negate the possiblity that he 
could go rampaging against bad guys while in wolf form.  Even if he 
doesn't take his potion, he's at least as dangerous to the bad guys 
as he is to the good ~ a sort of hit-and-miss advantage, I guess. 

But so far, the only things limiting his usefulness are his own 
morality, his dedicated use of the potion, and possibly openness of 
prejudiced wizards to having a werewolf on their side (not a problem 
with Dumbledore, Black, and the Trio, though).
 
> Sirius -- Probably very skilled, but lacks a wand and has to look 
> over his shoulder for MoM and dementors.  Has been outsmarted by 
> Peter twice, and is a bit of a hot-head who makes rash decisions.

Yes, but those faults don't cement shoes make, necessarily.  I don't 
think we've yet seen Black's potential.  Specifically, we haven't yet 
seen what activity is possible for him when all of Dumbledore, 
McGonnegall, Lupin, Snape, and others of the 'old crowd' are all 
working to keep him protected/hidden, but in the game, you know?  I 
reserve all judgement as to his usefulness until I see what Dumby and 
co. have up their sleeves.  (One easy bit of speculation:  beat the 
polyjuice dead horse, and have Snape keep Black supplied with liquid 
disguise.  *shrug*  For example.) 

> Snape -- Is probably on Dumbledore's side, but who can be sure?  
> Probably has a great deal of DADA knowledge and can attack dark 
> wizards and has mastered the Unforgiveable Curses.  Might be the 
most 
> valuable member of Dumbledore's team, which is scary all by itself.

I love Snape's uncertain position, so I'll heartily give you 
potential bad apple on his side.  On the other hand, I also 
reeeeeeally liked the bit at the end of GoF when Dumbledore made he 
and Black shake hands.  I wish I could remember what Dumby said 
there, but I recall first time I read it, thinking "hmmm, so, 
wouldn't it be a neat B-story if these two end up having to co-lead 
the movement against Voldemort upon Dumbledore's death?"  Not that I 
think they'd make an especially effective team, just that I have a 
feeling that Dumbledore made the right move there, and that we can 
trust Snape and Black to be loyal, and potentially integral, in the 
fight ahead.  But that's just a vague feeling.

> McGonagall -- Almost a total blank slate.  We don't know what she 
> knows how to do, other than turn into a cat and transfigure 
things.  
> She probably doesn't know how to ward off a dementor based on her 
> failure to prevent Crouch from losing his soul.

Yes, she's terribly underdeveloped.  I almost think that, based on 
her activities to date, she could be the figurehead for the Good Guy 
Movement, should Dumby be removed from the picture.  The unifying 
force, as it were.  For one thing, she's extremely thoughtful, and 
patient, in researching a problem (c.f. sitting outside the Dursley's 
all day in anticipation of them raising orphaned Harry).  Also, her 
powers of strategy have been pointed out ~ she snatched Harry up as 
seeker for her house's Quidditch team by knowing at first sight that 
his natural ability would probably make up for lack of experience.  
And, the chess challenge on the way to the Stone in book one was hers 
~ imho, the fact that she would set up a chess problem as her 
protective contribution makes me think that strategy is her strong 
suit.  Advantages, imho.

> The Weasleys -- Also a blank slate.  We don't know whether they are 
> especially powerful, and the loyalty of Percy is questionable 
(sorry 
> Penny!).

I think the Weasleys, either way, will play minor roles (with the 
exception of Ron and possibly Percy).  As a whole, however, I think 
their place in the overall story is as 'family' to Harry.  How that 
helps or does not help him will be due to what *he* makes of them, as 
opposed to what they perform actively.  

Percy could turn out to be problematic, but I think it *might* affect 
Ron more than Harry, directly.  Also, I don't *think* he'll turn into 
a major player, but who knows.

> Aurors -- Moody is undoubtedly talented, but he apparently can be 
> beaten.  He was badly injured at least once, and he was overpowered 
> by Wormtail and Crouch.  He was unable to throw off Crouch Jr.'s 
> Imperius Curse.  He's far from invincible.

I think his use will be a la Dumbledore ~ useful for what he can 
teach.  Also, I think that his use in the heat of combat would be 
considerable ~ i.e., he's paranoid, and makes mistakes when paranoid, 
but if he knows he's in battle, he's forewarned, and can be gung ho 
about using his powers.  As far as the Imperius Curse ~ I wonder what 
it takes to be able to throw that off?  Somehow I don't think that 
any-old-body can throw it off, and that Harry is very rare in that 
respect.  If it was all that easy to fight, would it really be an 
Unforgivable Curse?  Or would it be just a Bad Curse That You 
Shouldn't Use Because It's a Severe Annoyance and Possibly Evil, Like 
the Belching Slug Curse?  And also, if it wasn't that big a deal to 
throw it off, why would all but Dumbledore be so freaked out about 
teaching it in school?  Seems it would be top of the list ~ lets show 
the kids how not powerful it is, and also show them how to fight it.

Which is a really long-winded way of saying that I don't think we can 
judge Moody's power by virtue of not being able to throw off the 
Imperius Curse.  And having been injured once ~ tiger tamers need 
stitches occasionally too.  And having been overpowered by Wormtail 
and Crouch ~ shows he's not perfect; but then, so far no one has 
proven to be perfect and unbeatable, not even Voldemort.

> On the other team, however, Voldemort has amassed the following:
> 
> Voldemort -- Although his track record against Harry is not 
> impressive, he ought to be more dangerous now than in his first 
> reign, which makes him pretty darn dangerous.

And yet we're continually getting implications and asides which seem 
to go to showing that he's at a *dis*advantage to Harry, if not 
doomed.  In the first book, he's defeated by love; in the second, by 
Harry's loyalty/faith re Dumbledore; in the third, he gains a 
follower who, according to Dumby, is significantly in debt to Voldy's 
nemesis, Harry; in book four, Harry sucker-punches him by being 
quick, lucky, and, most importantly, connected (via wand) to Voldy.  
By the way, I think that the wand incident *could* be foreshadowing ~ 
a hint of how the deeper connection of blood and rebounded curse will 
be Voldy's ultimate undoing.  Maybe.  :-P

> Lucius Malfoy -- Fully trained, cagey and has Fudge's ear.

And is also a poncy bugger who has "gonna get his" taped to his 
forehead.  >:-/  All right, seriously:  Malfoy is also self-serving, 
bigger than his britches, and has a bad case of down-playing the 
worth of others simply based on poverty or Muggle heritage.  

> Wormtail -- Frequently underestimated by Sirius, but is fully 
> trained, cagey, has a rather snazzy silver hand instead of a wand, 
> and can transform into a rat, which makes a small target.

I think that Wormtail is a HUGE wild card.  I rambled about why I 
think he has the great potential to tip the scales for the side of 
good in another post, but the highlights:  

- follows others out of fear.  Penchant for jumping ship when he 
thinks someone else is stronger than his current favorite.

- shows signs of being very disgruntled with the way Voldy treats him

- ye olde 'wizard bond' per the debt he owes Harry.  What's up with 
that?  Possibly a lot, imho.

- that silver hand.  Dude!  His demeanor changed quite a bit once he 
got that hand ~ greed, hunger, a bit more confidence in his 
movements.  I think little fearful Peter has only followed others 
because he felt less powerful.  Give him his own power...I think 
he'll use it.  And not necessarily for Voldemort.

> Mrs. Lestrange -- Loyal (one of the few DEs who didn't try to 
wriggle 
> off the hook) and strong enough to survive Azkaban.
> 
> Mr. Lestrange -- Probably has to be exceptionally tough to live 
with 
> Mrs. Lestrange.
> Rookwood -- Probably a seriously dangerous character if he worked 
for 
> the Dept. of Mysteries.
> 
> Miscellaneous DEs Travers, Dolohov, MacNair, Mulciber -- we don't 
> know much about them, other than that MacNair has managed to stay 
in 
> the good graces of the MoM.

Figg, Fletcher, et al might be the matches for DE's like the 
Lestranges.  After all, they survived Voldemort's rise to power.  
Also, we don't know who might be on the fringes of the good side, so. 

> Giants and Dementors -- Likely to align themselves with Voldemort.  
> We haven't yet seen any way to kill a dementor, only ward them 
off.  
> Giants supposedly like killing.

Dementors, yes.  Giants, maybe not.  
 
> It seems that the wizards on Dumbledore's team have significant 
> weaknesses or vulnerabilities, whereas the DEs do not (other than 
the 
> tendencies to make Evil Overlord-style mistakes).  Voldemort's 
forces 
> seem well-balanced, diverse and politically well-connected.  IMHO, 
it 
> looks like an uphill battle for Dumbledore.

I really think you're downplaying the balance, diversity and *other* 
types of connections Dumbledore and co. have going for them.  
Something not mentioned above: miscellaneous magical creatures.  So 
far, the Bad Guys are big-time snobs.  They'll curry favor with 
powerful beasts like Dementors and probably make a play for Giants, 
and quite possibly have a go at luring Goblins to their side.  But I 
bet they'd disregard Centaurs, unicorns, merpeople, and other 
intelligent types.  Granted that Centaurs and merpeople don't usually 
get involved in the wizards world, we've seen at least one Centaur 
argue with his brother that stargazing is for wimps and carrying 
Harry Potter on his back is the *least* of all possible evils.  

Also, we've seen MacNair the bloodthirsty beast killer.  And we've 
seen Hagrid, the expert in loving, handling, *respecting* and calming 
beasts.  Who would *you* want on your side?  In other words, I'm 
projecting a stereotype whereby the Bad Guys are of the mind that 
dumb and marginally intelligent beasts are to be either used or 
destroyed; while the good guys will attempt to tame, *learn from*, 
and respect the beasts.  If you're unarmed and faced with an 
alligator and no hope of simply running up the nearest tree, the 
desire to kill it won't help you.  However, knowing how to distract 
it, calm it, or confuse it, etc., will.

Still, in the end, I think that the deciding factors won't be so much 
quantity as quality.  Virtues will overcome, rather than brute 
strength.  Voldemort thinks that good and evil are moot, and it is 
only power and the forceful use of it that matters.  Natch.  He'll be 
proved absolutely wrong, imho.

Wheee, rambling way too much on a Monday!

Mahoney