New Minister for Magic? AND The Kissing of Barty Crouch

[lucky_kari]

No: HPFGUIDX 40962

--- In HPforGrownups at y..., "ibetaupin" <nythel at m...> wrote:
\
> With all this discussion about Fudge and his ineptitude recently, 
has 
> anyone ever thought about the possibility that by the end of the 
> series the Ministry will be looking for a new minister? I think 
> there's a very good chance of it. 

100% chance, I think. In my opinion, Fudge is KISSED, KISSED, KISSED! 
(like Dead, Dead, Dead but more sinister.) I mean who else wanders 
about with a dementor bodyguard after being warned these things are 
Voldemort's allies. 

>But who could it be? Personally, I 
> find Dumbledore to be the most qualified and though it'll be offered 
> to him a second time he'll turn it down yet again (after Voldie's 
> second and most likely final defeat I think he'll claim to be just 
> plain too old... Dumbledore's retirement party?)

If Dumbledore's alive. 

While I would be very happy for Dumbledore to buck the trend of 
mentors dying before the end of the series, there's all those "Harry 
suddenly realized that Dumbledore was looking very old" lines, that 
sinister "I would trust Hagrid with my life" line, and of course the 
fact that the only person Voldemort has ever feared is Dumbledore. 

But, I'm surprised that people seem to take at face value Hagrid's. 
"Wanted him for Minister for Magic" line. And Dumbledore refused? I 
mean, how reprehensible is that? Dumbledore willingly let Fudge mess 
things up? Isn't it pretty obvious that this is Hagrid's simple 
understanding of things again? Are we supposed to believe that all 
those people who wanted Crouch for Minister of Magic got together and 
nicely offered the job to Dumbledore? 

No, I expect that the selection of the new Minister was a very 
rancorous and bitter process. I expect that there was a Dumbledore 
faction, but I doubt that they were in the majority. And, of course, 
Fudge was picked as a compromise candidate. The hints of this are in 
GoF. 

> So does anyone have 
> any idea's as to who could take over? I was going through my head 
> some of the adults we already know (Lupin, Arthur, Sirius, etc) but 
> couldn't decide. I also considered McGonagall, but I think she may 
> end up as Headmistress of Hogwarts if Dumbledore does retire.

If there's one prediction about the books I feel comfortable in making 
it is this: Arthur Weasley will be Minister for Magic by the end of 
Book 7.

- He's an experienced Ministry wizard already. Molly implies that he's 
been looked down on at the Ministry as not having "proper wizarding 
pride," something that has apparently held back his career. But he has 
all the attitudes that JKR continually implies the Ministry needs. 
It's pretty obvious that, by the end of the series, he's going no 
place but up, and as we need a new Minister for Magic...

But what of the current Minister for Magic?

Eloise listed a number of reasons for the Kiss including 
>perhaps even more worryingly, 
>that the Dementors are out of Fudge's control.

I don't believe that this is really a workable proposition. On the 
face of things, it's very tempting. It has PoA to back it up. It also 
harks back to Voldemort in the graveyard and Dumbledore later on about 
dementors. 

But, if the dementors were out of control...

Well, first of all, wouldn't Fudge be glad enough to shift the blame 
onto the out-of-control dementor? Instead, he starts telling 
Dumbledore that Crouch Jr. was "no great loss," implying that it was 
his decision to have Crouch kissed. 

But, even more importantly, under an out-of-control dementor scenario, 
what would we make of this scene. (N.B. I can't find my English GoF, 
so I'm translating out of my Spanish edition. The English wording is 
a litttle different, I think.)

"But he will not be able to testify, Cornelius" said Dumbledore. He 
looked at Fudge severely, as if he was seeing him as he was for the 
first time. "Now he will not be able to testify who killed these 
persons."

If the dementor got out of control, why would Dumbledore be seeing 
something in Fudge for the first time? No, I think we can be sure that 
Fudge had Crouch kissed so that he could not testify.

And, of course, here the Evil!Fudgers all jump in and say "See! That 
proves our point! Why would he want Crouch to be silenced if he wasn't 
working for Voldemort!"

But again, I don't know if that works either. Dumbledore talks also 
about choosing between what is easy and what is right. It's been 
pointed out that this would make no sense in the text if Fudge was on 
Voldemort's side, that there would be no representation of the "easy" 
in GoF. 

But, Eloise has come up with a fascinating explanation of Fudge's 
actions, which I'll solidy endorse:
>Perhaps Snape did tell him the story convincingly enough for him 
>to realise the implications of what had happened and the 
>embarassment that would be caused to himself and to the Ministry 
>if the story were to become public. So the Kissing of Barty Crouch 
>became a matter of political expediency, the first stage of a 
>cover-up. No embarassing trial of a criminal supposed already to 
>be dead. No need to admit that Crouch Sr. was murdered - everyone 
>knew that he was ill, didn't they?

That is the most convincing theory I've heard so far. Fudge acting to 
cover his political posterior before he grasps the implications. Could 
Fudge have brought himself to have Crouch kissed once he had heard 
Dumbledore out? Perhaps not. But greeted with the criminally 
insane escaped son of one's colleague and past rival who might let a 
lot of Ministry skeletons out of the closet, the dementor sure must 
have looked tempting to Fudge. 

And, if you're a Fourth Man favourer, remember that one of the planks 
of the Fourth Man platform is that Fudge cashed in on that 
bleeding-heart movement implied in GoF, inspired by Crouch Jr.'s pleas 
of innocence. In Fourth Man, we like to imagine that Avery was thereby 
released, but even minus Avery/Fourth man, it might not be so 
politically expedient for Fudge to acknowledge that the emotional wave 
that made him Minister was misguided and misdirected.

>Eloise who still thinks there is plenty of scope for Fudge to 
>have been actively  evil *before* Voldemort's fall, just in case 
>anyone thinks she's deserted Camp Evil!Fudge.

I much prefer Camp Fudgey!Fudge. Evil!Fudge leaves this unpleasant 
aftertaste in one's mouth, while Fudgey!Fudge is 
melt-in-your-mouth-delicious. Be that as it may, your remark reminds 
me of an interesting little scenario. Back when the hedgehog spotters 
were searching for Evil!Aurors, Evil!Frank, Evil!Gran etc. there was a 
nice little story where Fudge framed Crouch Jr. in order to discredit 
his father. 

Not that I believe it, of course. 

Eileen