Fred and George's wager on the Quidditch World Cup

[adatole]

No: HPFGUIDX 35920

OK, another newbie checking in. And this is the precise topic that 
motivated me to getting onto this group! Thanks to all who have given 
their thoughtful commentary so far.

> > Theory #1: the match was fixed.  But Krum wasn't shown to be a 
bad 
> > guy--and why would the twins, of all people, be in the know?
> 

I wholeheartedly discount this thought. It just doesn't fit in terms 
of plot, character introduction, etc. There were so many other things 
going on during the match - Crouch invisible in the stands, learning 
about different races (leprechauns, etc), all the new "toys" (the spy 
glasses). I think that asking the reader to pick up on clues to foul 
play is too much. 

And if there is one thing JK has consistantly done, it's drop hints 
about what's coming. Ms. Figg is a good example. You may not catch it 
now, but later on you'll go back and say "oh yeah".

> > Theory #2: they divined the result.  But JKR has led us to 
believe 
> > that true divination is very rare, and they haven't shown 
> predictive 
> > powers any other time.

This holds the most promise for me, with another twist. Perhaps being 
identical twins actually helps. In theory, one twin acts as 
an "anchor" to the current time, while the other "moves" through time 
to see the potential result. Most "singletons" couldn't do it, or it 
would be very hard. But perhaps the twins have found it easier and 
could use it to their advantage. 

They certainly have never suffered very badly in all their exploits. 
Despite their reputation for being troublemakers, they have avoided 
being expelled or even reprimanded (except from their mother). 
 
> 
> I have a third theory for you to consider.  What if they had gotten 
> ahold of a time-turner?  Perhaps the one Hermione turned back in to 
> Professor McGonagall some weeks before?  Do you think they would be 
> able to rationalize cheating in this way?
 
It's interesting, and certainly not beyond them. However, I don't 
believe McGonagall keeps a stash of time-turners on hand, and I think 
the devices are strictly regulated. Therefore it couldn't just 
disappear and not cause an all-out search. 

> >  And even if that has been known to happen once in 
> > a blue moon, why would Fred and George bet all their money on it??
> 
> I agree.  I just can't see them taking such a foolish risk--unless 
> they knew for a certainty that it would pay off.  

I just have to add my agreement to the bunch. There was no point 
spread, no "grey area" that they could hope to fit into. They called 
the end of the match with prescient accuracy. IMHO, it has to be more 
than a coincidence.

Leon