How many students [was Re: Random ideas]

[Grey Wolf <greywolf1@jazzfree.com>]

No: HPFGUIDX 51739

Tom Wall wrote:
> I would submit that the information we receive from the interviews 
> is in some ways better canon than in the novels. The interviews are 
> direct from the source. In the novels, she's setting up a plot, and 
> can't realistically give us everything.

I very much doubt that canon from interviews is the strongest canon
possible. Why? Because JKR is, after all, human, and anything she says
during an interview is subject to error. As I said in muy post, the
numbers don't add up. The numbers in the books are: Harry's year has
30 students between Gryffindor, Slytherin and Hufflepuff (give or take
a couple in Slytherin and Hufflepuf). There is no indication of how
many students are in Ravenclaw, but nothing indicates a higher number.
For sake of argument, let's say there are twice as many there as in
any of the others, giving us a grand total of 50 students. Times seven
years, asuming a constant number, we get 350 students.

You propose there is certain amount of variance in the number of
students, adding up to 1000. However, that would mean that all the
years above Harry's have more than *twice the nuber of students*. I'm
no expert on demographics, but unless Voldemort went on a brutal
killing streak of Harry's age babies, a sudden descent in birth of 60%
is going to be hard to explain. If you try and create a gradient, you
need something in excess of 200 students in 7th year to explain a
regular reduce of births. And reducing birthrate 75% in 7 years is
hard to swallow, since there is no idication that there has been a
reduction in births. In fact, we have canon about the oposite: the WW
realised they were heading for extinction and married muggles. This
means they are conscious about birthrates, and thus I don't think that
such an abrupt descent on births would've passed unoticed (a descent
of 60-75% in seven years is not a minor problem, it's a catastrophe).
And this is being generous with the numbers - I'm more inclined to
believe that there are only 40 students in HArry's year, and a total
population of 280-300.

> Grey Wolf wrote:
> For example, by your numbers there are 25 students in Gryffindor 
> Harry hasn't ever seen, heard named or mentioned in the books - five 
> boys (Harry, Ron, Neville, Dean & Seamus) and three girls (Hermione, 
> Lavender and Parvati) are named, and two more girls get a chance 
> against the Boggart in PoA. The other 25 have never been mentioned 
> at all - not even in passing.
> 
> I wrote previously:
> Of course, that's assuming that each year, 
> roughly the same number of students come
> to the school, and that out of that total,
> each house gets roughly the same number of 
> students.
> 
> I reply:
> Using my previous response as a basis: maybe Harry's year is a small 
> one for Gryffindor House. There's absolutely no reason to assume 
> that each house gets the same number of boys and girls per year per 
> house.

I already answered your previous point: we know there are 10
Gryffindors. We know that Gryffindors + Slytherin/Hufflepuff add to
about twenty. We don't know how many Ravenclaws there are, but nothing
indicates there are more Ravenclaws that any of the other houses.
Besides, it's interesting that you, that mkake such passionates points
against extrapolating from canon, suddenly turn around your thinking
when it's convinient and decide that, since there is no indicatiopn of
almost four times more Ravenclaws than the other three houses put
toghether, that must be what is happening.

> And really, if you think about it, it's hard to even consider 
> such a question, because the question itself presupposes one of two 
> things (that I can come up with now):
> 
> 1) Wizards and witches are born in perfect proportion to match the 
> Hogwarts classifications each year, or

I have NOT said there are perfect proportions. I take into account
variances of up to 30% in the number of students - "20" earmuffs could
very well be twenty-something. I won't, however, assume that there are
enough Ravenclaws to end up adding to 140 students per year (yes, that
*would* rewquire 110 Ravenclaw students in Harry's year , and
certainly such a crowed *couldn't* pass unoticed).

> 2) The Sorting Hat has some predetermined quotas for the number of 
> students for each house.

Again, it is you who is missreading my words. There might be 13
Slytherins and 14 Hufflepuffs - no quotas at all, just random
disturbances normal in statistical smnall groups. But there is a
stretch between 13 or 14 and 110,.

> Grey Wolf wrote:
> But then there is Quidditch games, were there are 200 slytherin 
> students, which are a fourth of the total number - getting some 800 
> students in total. and there are enough carriages for 1000 students, 
> and enough tables in the Yule Ball, IIRC (although, as I say, the 
> relevant passages are in the FP).
> 
> I reply:
> Exactly: Occam's razor – the simplest answer is usually the best. 

I've said several times that, if Occam was part of our group, he
would've grown a beard. My point? Occam's razor is useless when
examining a book (yes, I am going into metathinking. Me, of all
people). Do you think Occam's razor would've told you that the pet of
someone you've met in a train would turn to be the traitor friend of
your parents that got them killed and precipitated the need for you to
live with your horrible aunt and uncle? Simplest answer my foot. In
books, the authorical casualty operates.

> So, why would JKR mislead us on the population of Hogwarts in 
> interviews?  Answer: she's not.
> 
> -Tom

No, she could be mistaken. She might have never though of the answer,
and said the first round number that popped into her head. You see,
I've worked extensively with the numbers involved in the books. The
fact that classes are never bigger than 20 students give us lots of
clues. with 1000 students, you need at least 50 groups (that isn't
entirely true, though: several units are taught to a house on its own;
there are optional classes that not everyone takes). Let's ignore that
for now, though. 50 groups, all of which require 2 hours of potions a
week (well, three, but nevermind). Solution: Snape teaches 100 hours a
week. That's 20 hours a day. Even with time-turners, Snape must be a
vampire just to keep going at that rithym.

Let's complicate the numbers: someone proposed that 6 & 7th year
students don't have regular classes as such. So, let's take them out
of the equation: 700+ students left. But, to twist things, let's
consider DADA now: groups of about 10 students. That's 70 groups.
let's say 60, to take into account bigger-than-10 average groups. Yes,
at 2 hours DADA a week, the DADA teacher works 120 hours/week. Which
comes out to be 24 hours/day. No wonder the DADA teachers don't last
more than a year: they don't have time for anything - not even sleeping.

I think I have made my point. There is no way the school can work as
described with 1000 students. As it is, it hardly works with 300. 

Hope that helps,

Grey Wolf