SUNLIGHT ULTRA (Was TBAY: Washing dishes and powders

[Tom Wall <thomasmwall@yahoo.com>]

No: HPFGUIDX 52227

Thanks for the reply - sorry that this has to come in two parts, but 
I'm currently working at the library, and they're pretty intense 
about getting off the terminal when it's someone else's turn. 

OTOH, it's nice to have a reply to work with, so that I can include 
some of that stuff in the part two. ;-) 

I'll put the continued stuff first, and then followups to your reply 
second.

Risti & Shauna wrote in 52129:
"But Lupin doesn't just go in and hug Black," said Risti, getting 
back on track. "After assessing the room, and crying Expelliarmus 
(which, incidentally, would have reminded Harry of that spell as a 
possibility for upcoming events), he asks Sirius `Where is he?"(pg 
252, softcover). He's testing Sirius to see if he even knows about 
Pettigrew, which Sirius shows that he does. Then Lupin thinks for a 
moment, partially out loud for our benefit, and finally reaches the 
conclusion that they switched Secret Keepers."

I reply:
I couldn't agree more with your reasoning here. IMO, you described 
Lupin's actions better than I did... he asks Sirius the question to 
make sure that that's the reason Sirius is there in the first place, 
right? So that if Sirius doesn't know anything about Peter, then 
Lupin can move on to deal with Traitor!Sirius in a different manner.


Risti & Shauna wrote in 52129:
So Snape fakes being knocked out, and continues to keep an ear out to 
be ready to pounce if needed, and Lupin adjusts the plan from Sirius 
to Pettigrew.

AND Shauna wrote in 52223:
Well, if you accept that he actually was knocked out, he could 
have woken up at practically any time afterwards, although your 
canon regarding bumping heads in the tunnel suggests that he 
didn't do it immediately. The problem with waiting until after the 
action's over, is that it leaves a significant piece of time where 
neither Lupin nor Snape has control of the situation. On the 
other hand, there *shouldn't* have been dementors there that 
night, and Lupin and Snape could have simply expected that 
Sirius, seeing his proof gone, would escape, and HRH would 
return to Hogwarts depressed but perfectly safe.

I reply:
A few points here... I guess that the position has to be that he 
*was* knocked out, right? I mean, as Pip pointed out at another time, 
Snape was bleeding later in the hospital scene, and there's the 
bumping-of-the-head from which I infer unconsciousness... but, I 
think that you could argue here that the HHR 'expelliarmus' wasn't 
part of the plan, as you suggested re: Lupin's wand.

And on the dementors: I'm wondering how you figure this - I mean, the 
dementors are a problem in that they're there all of the time during 
PoA, right? So, in that sense, they were probably (I'd guess) a total 
complication to Spymaster!Dumbledore's planning, in that they do seem 
to make things more difficult. But then again, there's really no way 
that Spymaster!Dumbledore could have predicted that things would come 
to a head like this, nor could he have worked out when these events 
would happen.


Risti & Shauna wrote in 52129:
This time, when Lupin transforms, 
both Sirius and Pettigrew need to escape. It almost works, but Lupin 
forgot about one thing. Sirius wouldn't know that Lupin wasn't 
dangerous, and, being innocent, would want to protect Harry rather 
then run for his freedom. Then those Dementors come into the 
picture."

I reply:
I agree - nice reasoning here on Sirius. I completely concur. And I 
guess I answered myself again with the dementors. I'm betting I 
misinterpreted your earlier bit on how the dementors *shouldn't* have 
been there. Here, you seem to be implying that they're, um, not a 
part of the plan, which I agree with. So, you're saying that they 
*shouldn't* have been there in the sense of 'not in the original 
plans?' 


Risti & Shauna wrote in 52129:
"So why doesn't Agent Snape intervene at this ponit? Isn't that what 
he's there for, back up?" asked Melody.

"We know that the power of Dementors is dependent on just how bad 
your worst memories are. How much power do you think they'd have 
over Snape?"

"Oh," said Melody softly, "good point."
END QUOTE.

I reply:
Yeah - I like this as well, although I think that Pip argued 
something along these lines in an earlier post. Can't find it now for 
reference, though. But it does explain, at least, why Snape wouldn't 
have called the dementors over onto Sirius.


Risti & Shauna wrote in 52129:
"Besides, Lupin has trained Harry for just this moment. He knows 
that Harry knows how to fight a dementor, and he knows that at this 
point, there are probably *two* Harry's running around, one of whom 
is probably there to fix up the messes that were left behind. Snape 
does step in as soon as he is able, and brings the trio safely back 
to Dumbledore."

I reply:
Yes, this is nicely reasoned out as well.


Risti & Shauna wrote in 52129:
"SUNLIGHT ULTRA: Snape Undercover Needs Lupin In Getting Harry To 
Give Lifedebt To Restrict Adversary."

I reply:
Um, minor point, here:  Where's your second 'U?' I see a 'G' where 
the 'U' in 'Ultra' should be. So, I see 'SUNLIGHT GLTRA.' I really 
like the acronym, though. ;-)


I wrote previously:
And, so, I'm guessing that you guys are 
accepting Azkaban!Hagrid in your formulations as well? IMHO, 
I really like that inference. It's something that I had totally 
forgotten about by the end of GoF. 

Shauna replied in 52223:
I believe that Risti rejects it - she doesn't think that Snape and 
Lupin knew about Pettigrew until that night at the Shrieking 
Shack. I believe it is only one of several possible ways that 
Snape/Lupin/Dumbledore could have found out that Pettigrew 
was alive (the Marauder's Map and actually getting a glimpse of 
the rat himself are others).

I reply:
So, instead of a theory with just one answer, what we're looking at 
is one that posits several alternatives for questions like these, 
right? That's a good plan, IMHO, but does it leave too much hanging? 
On this note, are you and Risti going to bring these points together, 
or are you going to build both options into the plan?


I wrote previously:
As long as you're aware of it, that's cool by me, although it means 
that SUNLIGHT ULTRA relies more on inferences than either of the 
other two. Although I bet we could keep digging around for more...

Shauna replied in 52223:
Yes and no. I like to believe we have a strong base of canon, 
and then inferences spring up around it. But that is, of course, a 
matter of opinion...
 
I reply:
Oh, I think I see what you mean. What I meant re: inferences was the 
sort of stuff like 'Snape & Lupin are working together' and also 
accepting opposing points like 'Snape was knocked out,' 'Snape wasn't 
knocked out,' 'They knew early on about the Secret Keeper,' 'They 
found out that night about the Secret Keeper,' and so on.

Along the flexibility lines, it seems to me like this kind of stuff 
can be built in without making the theory incoherent or anything, but 
if I'm right, then your *basic* position, minus all of the specifics, 
is: 'There are two agents in the Shrieking Shack.' And the other 
stuff is reasoned from there, right?

I guess I'll keep waiting around for the full theory to spring into 
being. <grin> 

Again, this is just one of my issues with the TBAY style, as IMHO it 
sort of leaves some things up in the air. Again, no complaints or 
objections if you're styling SUNLIGHT ULTRA this way deliberately. 
I'll just keep asking for clarifications when I'm confused.


I wrote previously:
Well, I argued in my response to the MDDT that the canon's out 
on Wolfsbane potion so far - so, Lupin might have taken it enough 
earlier in the week to cover this problem. Or, as you suggest, 
he might be lying about not taking it. Wondering what you think 
about that...

Shauna replied in 52223:
I think that while your argument is possible, taking and faking is 
the far safer possibility, especially considering that with both of 
them agents, there's no risk to doing it.

I reply:
Yeah, I think it's a safer possibility, but this brings us to my 
being more anal about a) getting stuff from the text, and b) not 
wanting to assume that anyone's lying. Just me, though.


Thanks for the cool discussion. I'm definitely looking forward to 
seeing how it all resolves itself.

-Tom