OOP: Audio Clip Theory

[Tom Wall]

No: HPFGUIDX 60581

Gregory wrote:
Black is taken into custody and Dumbledore makes a very public stink 
about Black being innocent and demanding the trial Black never got 
before. I imagine that Dumbledore has enough public support to force 
the issue. 

Tom asks:
Do you really think that Dumbledore has that level of support? I'm 
not so sure. 

Rita Skeeter may not be a reliable source of information, but she 
does have an unnerving tendency to articulate her gossip in a way 
that makes people listen – why else would Mrs. Weasley, who spends 
most of GoF lambasting Skeeter, believe the journalist when it comes 
to Hermione and Harry's imaginary relationship?

We have several indications to suggest that Dumbledore might be in a 
lot more trouble than we think.

"I particularly enjoyed your description of me as an obsolete 
dingbat." 
Rita Skeeter didn't look remotely abashed.
"I was just making the point that some of your ideas are a little old-
fashioned, Dumbledore, and that many wizards in the street –" (GoF, 
Ch.18, 307, US edition)

In the Parting of the Ways, Dumbledore hints that he has less support 
than we might expect - at least, his support is weak enough that he 
needs to be 'discreet:' 

"Then I need to send a message to Arthur," said Dumbledore. "All 
those that we can persuade of the truth must be notified immediately, 
and he is well placed to contact those at the Ministry who are not as 
shortsighted as Cornelius." <snip>
"[Arthur] will need to be discreet, however. If Fudge thinks I am 
interfering at the Ministry -" (GoF, Ch.36, 711, US)

Then, we have Dumbledore's own admission at the Leaving Feast in the 
final chapter of GoF:

"Cedric Diggory was murdered by Lord Voldemort."
<snip panicked reaction from crowd>
"The Ministry of Magic," Dumbledore continued, "does not wish me to 
tell you this. It is possible that some of your parents will be 
horrified that I have done so – either because they will not believe 
that Lord Voldemort has returned, or because they think I should not 
tell you so, young as you are." (GoF, Ch.37, 722, US edition)

And even worse, we have Dumbledore's own possible mistakes, including 
keeping certain sensitive information away from Fudge:

"If I have discovered that you've been keeping certain facts about 
the boy very quiet? A Parselmouth, eh? And having funny turns all 
over the place –" (GoF, Ch.36, 705, US)

Then Fudge's promise of action:
"Now see here, Dumbledore," he said, waving a threatening 
finger. "I've given you free rein, always. I've had a lot of respect 
for you. I might not have agreed with some of your decisions, but 
I've kept quiet. There aren't many who'd have let you hire 
werewolves, or keep Hagrid, or decide what to teach your students 
without reference to the Ministry." (GoF, Ch.36, 709, US)

And:
"I will be in touch with you tomorrow, Dumbledore, to discuss the 
running of this school. (ibid, p710)

So, we have a Dumbledore who might possibly on the way out as far as 
public support goes. Maybe his ideas aren't so contemporary or 
relevant anymore. Maybe he's irritated parents by telling their kids 
about Voldemort. Maybe he's irritated them by hiring a werewolf and a 
half-giant to teach their kids. Maybe he's irritated parents AND 
Fudge by keeping information about Harry, such as his scar pains and 
Parselmouth-ability, a secret.


Gregory wrote:
The trial can then be used to make the case against Peter Pettigrew 
in a semi-public forum.

Tom adds:
Well, it can't really – this is the same problem we had at the end of 
PoA. We can't turn anything into a trial against Pettigrew, because 
there's no proof that he exists, and no one will believe Harry. Heck, 
they wouldn't believe him *the.* They definitely won't believe him 
now. 

And we can't redeem Sirius – there are eyewitnesses, and everyone now 
thinks that Pettigrew's dead. Sirius is up the creek. And worse, he's 
an escaped convict who is now being aided and abetted by Dumbledore, 
oh yeah, him and his renegade escaped hippogriff. ;-)

Not good news for our favorite headmaster.

I like your ideas, Greg, and of course, would hope that the 
characters could be lucky enough for things to happen this way. But I 
think that the road's only gonna get darker from here on out.

I think that we're going to see a Dumbledore who has surprisingly 
little, and even still *waning* public support – and that's my guess 
as to why the spoiler referred to the `impotence of the authorities 
at Hogwarts.' Dumbledore's made a few mistakes in the past, such as 
deceiving Fudge, and these mistakes are now going to return in full 
force to haunt him and his position of authority, and therefore, the 
safety of everyone at Hogwarts.

Unfortunate for our characters, yes, but fortunate for us, as tension 
creates a better story. ;-)

-Tom