Crying wolf?

[arrowsmithbt]

No: HPFGUIDX 81956

--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "kneazle255" <kneazle255 at y...> wrote:
> 
> Kneazle255:
> I have always assumed that Lupin, after the initial reaction you 
> describe so well, quickly came to the realization that Peter must 
> have had something to hide. To paraphrase Sirius, if Peter's so 
> innocent, why did he hide for 12 years? Lupin's answer to that 
> question was that Peter is guilty. 
> 
> It must have really struck Lupin like an epiphany. The answer would 
> have dovetailed perfectly with what he knew about Peter and Sirius' 
> personalities. 
> 
> He may also have considered carefully Sirius'incursion into the dorm. 
> He did not kill Harry. He was after something else, Remus guesses. It 
> may have put a seed of doubt in RL's mind. 
> 
> Does Remus has at least some lingering doubts about Sirius' guilt? 
> Despite the danger to Harry, Remus apparently never tells anyone 
> about wormtail, prongs or padfoot. 
> 
> Another possibility is that Remus was using Harry as bait so he could 
> have a shot at killing Sirius himself. A totally personal vendetta. 
> So he tells no one about Padfoot because he *wants* Sirius to enter 
> Hogwarts and make an attempt on Harry that so that he can corner him.


Aha! Apparently I'm not alone in finding aspects that deserve further
consideration in this episode, though I've never had the thought
that Remus was using Harry as bait;  that's devious. Well done!

No, if I put myself in Remus' position, knowing just how little he
is supposed to know, I can't reach the conclusions he did.

1. Sirius is accepted as guilty by all of the murder of Peter.

2. Sirius escapes from Azkaban, believed to be after Harry.
, 
3. Sirius is expected to sniff around Hogwarts.

4. Sirius breaks into Gryffindor dorms.
    (He attacks the wrong bed (not Harry's) so far as everybody 
    is concerned. The immediate assumption would be that he 
    has made a mistake. How could he recognise Harry in the 
    dark when the last time he saw him was when Harry was 
    a year old?)

5. Remus sees Sirius *and* Peter on the map.
   ( Sirius he might expect, but Peter no. Where did he come
    from? What is he doing here? Is he after revenge too?
    Why should Remus assume that Peter has been hiding at 
    Hogwarts?)
    
6. Sirius, Peter, Ron, Harry, Uncle Tom Cobbleigh and all depart via
    the tunnel under the Whomping Willow to the Shack.
  
If Remus knows these facts and *nothing else* is his reaction, 
behaviour and immediate conviction of Sirius' innocence credible?

This is difficult to accept. Unless Remus has been given more
information from elsewhere to fill in some gaps, his actions don't
fit. 

Kneasy