Conspiracy Theories

[nkafkafi]

No: HPFGUIDX 96618

I generally agree with Jim and Steve (up-thread). I also agree with 
Kneasy that nobody in HPFGU should tell anybody other how and what it 
is proper to think. The "IMO" is always there, in every theory we 
promote or criticize, even when it is not explicitly written. I 
myself have been known to come up with and zealously promote theories 
that are probably against the theme of HP. Actually, in one case I 
made it clear that I believe my theory will *not* happen in the next 
books because it wasn't something that JKR is likely to write, yet I 
continued to develop it for pure fun and adamantly persisted that it 
follows from canon.

The Potterverse is larger than the HP books. There are things that 
JKR is not likely to write because of her own personality, values and 
abilities, yet they logically follow from canon as she wrote it.

The term "conspiracy theory" is semantics here. I think what Jim and 
Steve are saying is that, when we estimate how much a theory is 
likely to prove right in the next two books (which again, is not the 
same as how much fun it is), we need to consider more than just 
canon. The theory should also fit with JKR's personal style and 
values. JKR has never taught us to like a certain character and then 
told us he/she is evil and was just pretending all along. I think JKR 
considers such a thing to be cheating (I do) and I don't believe she 
will do it in the future. The exception was of course Crouch!Moody, 
who turned out to be another person, not the real Moody. This was IMO 
on the very verge of cheating, but not quite. Another *very* slight 
exception was Scabbers, whom I at least liked because of that single 
minor incident in SS/PS when he had bitten Goyl. However, teaching us 
all (or at least most of us) to like a main character such as Lupin 
(or Ron or Neville or even Tonk or Luna) and then tell us that he was 
pretending all along, this is a whole different thing. I strongly 
believe JKR won't do it. It might happen that Lupin has a certain 
weakness or problem that in a certain situation will tempt him to 
betray his friends, but *Ever*-So-Evil Lupin just won't fly. 99% of 
the readers (not just the children!) will feel betrayed, and rightly 
so.

Again, I don't have the slightest problem with people promoting 
theories like ESE!Lupin in the HPFGU group. This is all in good fun. 
The above is just for the purpose of estimating how likely is JKR to 
follow the theory in books 6 and 7.

Neri