Snape and the MOM

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 92955

Pippin wrote:
Snape only needs to tell Voldie that he's just discovered that 
the Order knew all along that only Voldemort or Harry could get the 
prophecy from the MoM and that the Order had also been 
informed about Harry's dreams about the Department of 
Mysteries.  So when Snape reported to the Order that Harry 
was  missing, after searching in the forest and otherwise delaying 
as long as he could without rousing suspicion, they unfortunately 
already knew where to look. 

He could also claim that he could hardly avoid contacting the 
Order about Harry's cryptic message, since it would definitely 
have aroused Dumbledore's suspicions if he hadn't. Even if 
Harry never came back from the Department of Mysteries, a 
number of other students had heard him.
  
Carol wrote:
You seem to be assuming that LV knows that Snape is in the 
Order. I'm assuming that his membership in the Order is part of 
what he's covering up and that he's only sharing information 
about Hogwarts and Dumbledore with LV. Do you have any 
basis for your view?

Pippin responded: 
I'm assuming that Snape is still alive because he convinced 
Voldemort that he, Snape, was in Dumbledore's confidence and 
was willing to betray that confidence to LV.  Of course he would 
be expected to  maintain that confidence. It would be difficult to 
do that if Dumbledore discovered that Snape had not reported 
the incident with Umbridge or Harry's disappearance.
 
Presumably Voldemort knows that there is a conspiracy helping 
Dumbledore, even if he doesn't know that it is called the Order of 
the Phoenix or that it meets at Grimmauld Place or who exactly is 
in it. Order was just a bit of shorthand...you could replace it with  
"Dumbledore or his contacts" if you like.


Carol again:
Thanks for the explanation. I do prefer that wording, because Snape's
relationship with Dumbledore at Hogwarts and his membership in the
Order are two different things. LV has to know something about the
first for Snape to succeed as a double agent; I don't necessarily
think he knows anything about the second because I don't think it
would be in Snape's interest to tell him (or Malfoy).

I also don't think that Snape has to report everything that happens at
Hogwarts, so there's no reason for him to say anything about Umbridge.
He also would have no way of *instantly* notifying LV that Harry was
missing--and he would realize that LV knew it anyway because of the
scar. Anyway, I don't think he reported to Voldemort that night; he
was too busy contacting other people and searching the forest for
Harry. (Wonder how *he* dealt with the centaurs?) I suppose that,
being Snape, he could come up with some reason for not doing so, but
he would still be blamed for letting everything slip. But I think that
LV still has reservations about Snape's loyalty, and now that Lucius
is in Azkaban, LV won't be able to obtain any information through
their contacts, so he may think it's time to dispense with Snape even
if he doesn't figure out the full extent of Snape's role in the MoM
fiasco. I think, though, that he'll suspect it was Snape, not Harry,
who contacted Dumbledore and the Order if only because Snape is a
clear-thinking, very sharp man and Harry is a boy whose emotions were
in turmoil and whose thoughts were being manipulated by LV himself. 

Who knows? Maybe I'm overestimating LV's powers of deduction and
underestimating Snape's ability to convince him of his innocence. But
with Lucius in Azkaban, there won't be a middleman to deal with, and
Snape will be on his own with his lies and his occlumency if he
chooses to leave the safety of Hogwarts. As I've said before, if I
didn't know he'll be playing a crucial role in Book 7, I'd be really
worried about him in Book 6.

Carol