Two Wormtails was Re: Plot in OotP (wand confusion)

[Renee]

No: HPFGUIDX 118437


--- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "pippin_999" <foxmoth at q...> 
wrote:
> 
>  
> Renee:
> Who Wormtail is and what exactly Snape knows are two different 
> mysteries. As you say, the first one is solved later in the books. 
> On the later, we can only speculate but it doesn't change the fact 
> that the first one is solved. (Pulling Occam's Razor again.)
> 
> Pippin:
> The trouble with Occam's razor in this context is that we're only 
> pretending that events in the Potterverse are related by cause 
> and effect. 

Renee:
To avoid misunderstandings, are you saying that Occam's razor is 
inapplicable in a work of fiction ruled by a single person who can 
manipulate people and events in a way no one in the real world is 
able to do?

<snip>

If we are allowed to eliminate evidence at will, then Occam's razor 
can be used to prove anything. If we're  not, then the case for two 
Wormtails and ESE!Lupin is immeasurably strengthened.

Renee:
Calling our subjective interpretation of a text *evidence* can also 
be used to prove anything. Wormtail II is such an interpretation, 
not evidence, so if I use Occam's razor - temporarily setting aside 
the interesting question whether this is a valid operation in a work 
of fiction - to eliminate him because I think he isn't necessary to 
explain the text, I'm not eliminating evidence, just a conclusion 
based on the text.  

Maybe we ought to agree on a definition of what constitutes evidence?
 
<snip> 

> Renee:
> ?? I don't see what harm it could do to tell James the spy went 
> under the name Wormtail. So he would have told Sirius. What 
> did DD think Sirius could do with this information? And if DD 
> suspected Sirius *before* Halloween 1981 (is this canon?) he 
> was criminally irresponsible anyway, to allow him to be the 
> Secret Keeper. And are you saying James & Sirius wouldn't have 
> suspected Peter if they'd been confronted with the name 
> Wormtail? 
> 
> Pippin:
> It would be very important to Voldemort to know what information 
> about the DE's is reaching Dumbledore, since it would help him 
> discover which of his servants was a traitor. If Dumbledore did 
> share this information with James, perhaps he made James 
> promise not to tell anyone else.

Renee:
I'm glad you allow the possibility that Dumbledore shared his 
information with Voldemort's target. But if he could *make* James 
promise not to tell anyone - not even the man James trusted beyond 
his other friends - why not *make* James accept him as his Secret 
Keeper?  


Pippin:
>  It is canon according to McGonagall that Dumbledore was 
> worried about James's choice of secret-keeper, and that James 
> insisted on using Sirius despite this. I don't think Sirius knew 
> about the Wormtail name. But if James did, and thought that 
> Dumbledore had eliminated Peter from consideration as the 
> spy, then he would think that Peter was the ideal secret-keeper, 
> since Voldemort would never think they'd use someone he'd 
> managed to cast suspicion on. 

Renee:
Why would Dumbledore think it was a setup on Voldemort's part? For 
all he knew, his spy in Voldemort's camp (Snape) had handed him a 
genuine piece of information. So, if he passed the name Wormtail on 
to James, who likewise had no reason to distrust the information, 
Peter was no longer a likely candidate for the Secret Keeper job.   

Pippin:
> It might have worked, only, IMO, somebody told Voldemort about 
> the switch. 

Renee: 
Uh, yes, and not just in your opinion... what about Peter?