Lupin is Ever So Evil, Part One -- The Prank (LONG)

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 129902

I must beg the list's  indulgence for starting with 
the prank. Putting Lupin's history in chronological 
order makes it easier to understand, but it also 
puts the most speculative  area of the theory 
first. There is more than one clue to show that 
Lupin could have been Voldemort's  spy and his 
second-in-command, that he could have sent the 
Lestranges to attack the Longbottoms,  aided 
Quirrell and Lucius with their plotting, arranged 
for Peter Pettigrew's escape, helped to murder 
Cedric, and killed off Sirius Black. 

But for this bit, what I mostly have to go on is 
Snape's claim that  Lupin was in on it (1) -- "it"  
being the "highly amusing joke" that would have 
resulted in Snape's death(2).  Since Snape doesn't 
give any  evidence for his belief, it seems merely 
another symptom of his irrational hate -- except 
that if Lupin did indeed plot to kill him, Snape's 
hatred isn't irrational at all! 

Snape's suspicion does not make a good red
herring because it is never explained. On the
other hand it makes an excellent Chekhov's
gun -- a plot element introduced and left hanging
with the expectation that it will prove important
to later events. (The name comes from Chekhov's
often quoted rule that if you bring a rifle onstage,
someone must think of using it.)

Because nothing is made of Snape's suspicion, 
no contrary evidence is presented, which means a brief 
confession would  be enough for Rowling to establish 
Lupin's guilt if  it  comes time to reveal All. 
Moreover, chronologically  and psychologically, 
involvement in the prank forms a plausible  
foundation for what I suspect to be 
Lupin's role  in  later events.

The story of the prank in canon is simply told. 
Snape wanted to know where Lupin went every month. 
One evening, he  spotted Madam Pomfrey taking Lupin 
out to the Whomping Willow. Sirius thought it would 
be amusing to tell Snape how to get inside. "Of 
course" Snape tried it. If he had gotten as far as 
the Shrieking Shack, he would have met a full grown 
werewolf, but James, who'd heard what Sirius had 
done, went after Snape and pulled him back. Ever 
since then, Snape has known that Lupin was a 
werewolf. (3)

The beginning and end of the story are maddeningly 
incomplete. How did Sirius find out what Snape had 
seen? How did James learn what Sirius did?  What 
happened afterward? Was anyone punished? But the 
biggest gap  comes right in the middle. As befits 
the theme of Book Three, it has to do with 
*timing*.  The joke will be pointless if Snape 
enters the willow when Lupin is not there or finds 
him before he transforms. 

For the prank to work, the timing of the 
transformation must be predictable, and Lupin must 
be transformed while he is the Shrieking Shack. 
This has grave implications for the timing of 
Pettigrew's escape. But for now, we are dealing 
with the earlier event.

Iif Snape wanted to know where the willow passage 
led, wouldn't it have made more sense for him to 
explore it when Lupin wasn't likely to be in there?

On the face of it the answer is implied in the 
text.  Snape  followed Lupin hoping to get him in 
trouble. (4) But Snape knew that Lupin's visit to 
the willow was sanctioned, after all he'd seen 
Madam Pomfrey taking him there. The willow was 
forbidden territory; if Snape was caught snooping 
inside it, he, not Lupin, would have some 
explaining to do. (5) Possibly Snape already 
suspected Lupin was a werewolf and meant to expose 
him...but this seems unlikely too.

Werewolves belong to the Ministry of Magic's most 
dangerous category of fantastic beasts. (6)  Surely 
no wizard in his right mind, still less one who, 
unlike Hagrid or Sirius, was known to be cunning 
and  clever and good at keeping himself out of 
trouble, (7) would take on a werewolf alone.  What 
possessed Snape to follow Lupin into the willow on 
a night of full moon? 

Canon places much stress on the ways in which one 
wizard may induce another to take a rash or foolish 
action:  potions that bewitch the mind and ensnare 
the senses (8), the confundus charm (9),  the 
dreaded Imperius curse (10). Sirius could have used 
one of these to make sure that his "joke" was 
effective, but it  seems most unlike Sirius to have 
done so.   I can believe that Sirius would assault 
Snape and try to murder him outright -- but I can't 
see him setting a trap, not all on his own, anyway.  
In all the time  Sirius was after Pettigrew, that 
is one tactic he doesn't seem to have tried.

Could Snape have been bewitched by someone else? If 
he suspected this, would he have overstated his 
case as usual, shrilly accusing James and all his 
friends of a deliberate plot against him?  

We can imagine how it might have looked to 
Dumbledore; on the one hand, three exceptionally 
bright and popular students and their tagalong pal 
Peter, troublemakers but surely not murderers, on 
the other, one unhappy Slytherin with a grudge 
against them.    It seems that the use of magical 
coercion is difficult to establish after the fact -
- no one could prove or disprove Lucius Malfoy's 
claim that he was under the Imperius curse.  
Legilimency might not help; there are hints that 
werewolves are immune. (11)  Sirius's admission 
would seem to be much more plausible than some wild 
conspiracy theory. Why would Lupin take part in a 
joke that, if it worked, would expose his secret? 

But there was more than one secret to be concealed. 
Lupin was engaged in activities far more dangerous 
and reprehensible than turning into a vicious 
monster once a month. He had aided three of his 
friends in the practice of illegal magic (12), and 
every month, with their help, he was evading the 
protections which had been set in place for his 
safety and invading the castle grounds and the 
village of Hogsmeade. (13) Snape's vigilance might 
mean  the end of these outings, the only thing 
which made Lupin's tranformations bearable.  (14) 

But worse than that, it might not.   Sirius and 
James were reckless and high-spirited (15).  They 
might decide that they could evade Snape's 
vigilance and let the werewolf roam again. If Snape 
spotted the Animagi and learned their secret, then 
not only Lupin but all of his friends would be 
expelled and subject to penalties severe enough to 
make hardbitten Rita Skeeter consider a year of 
poverty and unemployment preferable. Besides that, 
the Marauders might have been held responsible for 
their depredations in Hogsmeade: "There were near 
misses, many of them."  (16) Innocent lives had 
been threatened. 

There was a good chance that Lupin would get away 
with it. He was used to keeping secrets; he had the 
means of disposing of the body;  blood, shrieks and 
signs of a struggle would all be taken as the usual 
aftermath of his transformation. (17) Snape's 
disappearance might have remained a mystery. Even 
if Lupin was suspected, what proof would there be?

Only Sirius would know that Lupin had been in on 
it. But if  Sirius was not thinking of murder, he  
wouldn't suppose that Lupin was either.  Sirius 
probably only hoped for  the sight of a terrified 
Snape fleeing from the monster's lair, though he 
told the Trio it would have served Snape right if 
something worse had happened.   (18)  Lupin could 
have trusted him to keep silent; Sirius was above 
all loyal to his friends (19).  It would be a 
desperate plan -- but Lupin might  have been  
desperate enough to try it. 

Fortunately for him, somehow James found  out what 
Sirius had done, went after Snape and saved him. 
Snape, caught out of bounds, was forbidden to tell 
what he saw, ( and probably warned to stay far away 
from the willow henceforth.) The Marauders' secrets 
remained safe.

Next: Part II -- The Spy

Notes -- All references US hardcovers, except 
FBAWTFF
(1) PoA ch 18 p 357
(2) PoA ch 14 p 285
(3) PoA ch 18 p 357
(4)  "sneaking around, trying to find out what we 
were up to...hoping he could get us expelled..." 
PoA ch 18 p 356
(5) "we were forbidden to go near it" PoA ch 10 p 
186
(6) FBAWTFT, entry on the werewolf, p 61
(7)"Snape's certainly clever and cunning enough to 
keep himself out of trouble" GoF ch 27 p
(8)"bewitching the mind, ensnaring the sense"  SS 
ch 8 p 137, also see OOP ch 18 p 383
(9)Confundus Charm, PoA ch 21 p 386
(10) Imperius Curse, GoF ch 14 p
(11) "An odd, closed expression appeared on Lupin's 
face." PoA ch 14 p 288.  Also
'"Don't ask me to fathom the way a werewolf's mind 
works," hissed Snape' PoA ch 19 p 361
(12) "[...] I had led three fellow students into 
becoming Animagi illegally." PoA ch 18 p 355
(13) "roaming the school grounds and the village by 
night" PoA ch 18 p 355
(14)"make my transformations bearable" PoA ch 18  p 
354
(15) "We were young, thoughtless --carried away 
with our own cleverness" PoA ch 18 p 355 "The risk 
would've been what made it fun for James." OOP ch 
14 p 305
(16) PoA ch 18 p 355
(17) "The screams and howls the villagers used to 
hear were made by me." PoA ch 18 p 352. "[...]so I 
bit and scratched myself instead." PoA ch18 p 353 
"[...] there were stains all over the floor; every 
piece of furniture was broken as though somebody 
had smashed it." PoA ch 17 p 337
(18) PoA ch 18 p 356
(19) Sirius's loyalty -- 
http://www.jkrowling.com/textonly/faq_view.cfm?id=6
1