Blown!Snape

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 162709

Pippin:
> <snip> The text plus JKR's comments indicates that Snape used his
patronus to contact the Order. That means anyone who saw the message
come in would know it was from Snape, regardless of whether they
actually heard it. (How does that work anyway? Some how I can't
imagine a patronus talking.)

Carol:
But unless Lupin is ESE!, it doesn't matter to Blown!Snape which Order
members saw the Patronus. The informer, according to your hypothesis,
is Kreacher. And we have no evidence that Kreacher saw Snape's
Patronus, or recognized it if he did. Also, we know that Kreacher was
under orders to wait for Dumbledore. Most likely, he was also under
orders not to report what he had seen, if anything. And even if Sirius
Black didn't care about protecting Snape's cover, Dumbledore would.
Considering that he's not Kreacher's master, he has an unusual amount
of control over him.

I see no indication that Voldemort knew or suspected that Snape had
alerted the Order. If he did, and Snape couldn't come up with an
alibi, Snape would be dead. Nor do I see any suspicion on Bella's or
Narcissa's part that he's the informer. Bella merely accuses him of
"slithering out of action again" and places the blame for the failure
of the DoM project squarely on Lucius's shoulders, just as Voldemort
does. Narcissa resents this remark, but doesn't attempt to apportion
the blame. Snape, of course, does know the part he played, and may be
sorry on some level, that he has betrayed Lucius, but I doubt that
it's his primary motive in taking the UV. After all, he's been
opposing Voldemort and the Death Eaters all this time while pretending
to be one of them. And yet, paradoxically, his affection for the
Malfoys is real, as close to friendship as any relationship in Snape's
life except that with Dumbledore.

In this instance, I think his affection for Draco and Narcissa, along
with whatever ambivalence he feels about having helped to send Lucius
to prison (where, ironically, he's safer from LV than he would be if
he were free), combines with his loyalty to Dumbledore, who also knows
that Draco is trying to kill him because (DDM!)Snape has already told
him and wants Snape to protect Draco at all costs. That being the
case, a UV to protect Draco would be in line with DD's wishes and not
worth arguing about because he wants to keep Narcissa's trust and not
arouse Bella's suspicions, which he's gone to so much trouble to
minimize. She still doesn't trust him, no doubt thinking that he's
loyal to himself rather than Voldemort, but she can't be allowed to
see that he's Dumbledore's man. Agreeing to the third provision,
assuming that he has any choice, preserves his position--loyal to the
Malfoys, willing to kill Dumbledore for Voldemort if it should prove
necessary, "obviously" disloyal to Dumbledore. It also, of course,
puts him in a terrible bind, symbolized by the ropes of fire.

Did DD already know or suspect that he was going to die, even before
the UV? Both he and Snape thought that Draco would fail, but if DEs
succeeded in getting into the castle, he might, considering his
injured wand hand, be unable to hold them off, and if Snape joined
him, he'd blow his cover. There's no question that Voldemort wanted DD
dead even more than he wanted Draco dead to punish Lucius, DD was the
only one he ever feared, and he had just dealt LV a humiliating defeat
in the MoM. And, of course, there's the ring Horcrux curse, which
might still be operating, and whatever might happen if he went after
other Horcruxes. And if Snape already suspected that Voldemort
"expect[ed] him to do it in the end" and told Dumbledore as much,
perhaps the third provision of the UV was only confirmation of what
they had already anticipated and discussed. None of which makes the
decision any less painful for Snape, but it does perhaps explain why
he could agree to the third provision while still remaining
Dumbledore's man. 

Not that he wanted to kill Dumbledore, not that there was any
pre-existing plan for him to do so or pretend to do so, only that both
Snape and DD knew in advance that it might come to the point where DD
had to die, and DD would rather be killed by Snape than by anybody
else--certainly, better Snape than Draco. So I think that he was
already under orders from DD to do what he had to do to protect
Draco--and his cover--even if it meant risking his own life and
Dumbledore's, both of which were already at risk. (But I still think
that the third provision was the DADA curse falling into place,
trapping Snape into facing the consequences of his own choices.)

Carol, still struggling like everybody else to make sense of the UV
and not buying Blown!Snape as an alternative to DDM!