Blown!Snape

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 162727


> Carol:
> But unless Lupin is ESE!, it doesn't matter to Blown!Snape which Order
> members saw the Patronus. The informer, according to your hypothesis,
> is Kreacher. And we have no evidence that Kreacher saw Snape's
> Patronus, or recognized it if he did. Also, we know that Kreacher was
> under orders to wait for Dumbledore. Most likely, he was also under
> orders not to report what he had seen, if anything. And even if Sirius
> Black didn't care about protecting Snape's cover, Dumbledore would.
> Considering that he's not Kreacher's master, he has an unusual amount
> of control over him.

Pippin:
Blackmailing!Narcissa is only one possible variant of Blown!Snape.
The informant doesn't have to be Kreacher, and there does not need to be
proof or knowledge that the news has reached Voldemort. The problem
for Dumbledore and Snape is that they can't be sure.

Here's the canon:
"[Snape] alerted certain order members at once.[...] Alastor Moody,
Nymphadora Tonks, Kingsley Shacklebolt, and Remus Lupin were
at headquarters when he made contact. All agreed to go to your
aid at once. Professor Snape requested that Sirius remain behind,
as he needed somebody to remain at headquarters to tell me
what had happened."

Kreacher must have been told that the news came from Snape.
Since Kreacher was under orders to tell Dumbledore what happened,
he could hardly have been given a blanket prohibition not to speak of it.
But the bigger problem is that Voldemort is very good at extracting
information, and he's going to be wondering how it was that the Order
showed up so  inconveniently. Draco himself heard Harry say "He's
got Padfoot! He's got Padfoot at the place where it's hidden" in
Snape's hearing. 

Even with Kreacher safely under wraps there are too many others 
who might be tricked, jinxed or blackmailed into giving up the 
information. Voldemort is a Slytherin and not temperamentally
inclined to hasty action, but his patience is not infinite and 
eventually he will put two and two together and decide to 
eliminate Snape, unless Snape has done something by that
time to justify what happened in the MoM.

I agree that Bella has no suspicions that Snape was the informer.
Whether  Narcissa does or not, she would be the first 
person Kreacher would tell if he told anybody, so Snape can't
be sure she will never find out/doesn't know already.  

As for Snape's sense of responsibility for Draco, when has he
failed to take  the safety of his students seriously? He defied
(apparently) Dumbledore once before to warn them about
Lupin, so I think we know what he would do if he thought his
loyalty to Dumbledore was putting his students in danger.

Carol:
> Did DD already know or suspect that he was going to die, even before
> the UV? 

Pippin:
Of course.  Once Voldemort had tried to kill him, he couldn't
have expected to survive for long, unless he could hide himself
more thoroughly than Voldemort imagines. Can you tell me why
Dumbledore wouldn't plan to take advantage of this means of
escape if it exists and he could use it without putting others
in peril?  And canon does want us to know it exists, though 
perhaps JKR's American editors gave away a few more details
than she would have liked.

The peril of caring for one child more than a crowd of nameless
faceless individuals has already been presented to us and seems to
be a fault that Dumbledore would forgive, since he himself has
been guilty of it.  It would go a long way to humanize Snape 
in Harry's eyes to see that.

Pippin