Spies, Lies and Self fullfilling prophecies

[pippin_999]

No: HPFGUIDX 146673

-
> --- In HPforGrownups at yahoogroups.com, "pippin_999" <foxmoth at q...> 
> wrote:
> > Pippin:
> > 
> >  The plot to frame Sirius was underway before
> > Godric's Hollow, from what Fudge and McGonagall say, so it's
> > almost certain that Voldemort, not Peter, was behind it.
> 
> Pat:
> I don't disbelieve you, but could you provide canon for this? 

Pippin:
The conversation at the Three Broomsticks, PoA ch 10, shows that
Sirius was already under suspicion. McGonagall says Dumbledore remained
worried  after he learned that Sirius would be the Secret
Keeper. Fudge says that Sirius seems to have planned a declaration of
support for You-Know-Who for "the moment of the Potters' death."

Fudge was Junior Minister in the Department of Magical Catastrophes
at the time and closely involved in the investigation -- he's not just
quoting wild stories from the Daily Prophet here. But there can't have
been any genuine evidence of Sirius being the  spy, or of this declaration,
so it must have been manufactured -- presumably by Voldemort.

Dumbledore says the Ministry can detect a killing curse "The Ministry,
on the other hand, knew at once that this was a wizard's murder." --
HBP ch 17. So the Daily Prophet was probably correct in saying that
only one curse was responsible for the deaths.

If  Peter *did* perform the unheard of magical feat of killing
twelve people with a single curse while holding his wand behind his
back, he must have been thoroughly coached on how to do it. He
doesn't seem capable of having come up with such original spell
work on his own.


Pippin previously: 
> > Yet if Godric's Hollow had gone as Voldemort had planned,  framing
Sirius would  have been pointless from the point of view 
of protecting his spy --if the spy was really Pettigrew.  LV 
couldn't  count on Sirius not getting a chance to tell his side of things, 
or   Dumbledore being distracted by the need to protect baby Harry! 
> > 
> > Pettigrew could hardly have continued to spy on the Order after 
 being outed as the Secret Keeper, or faking his own death, so why frame 
 Sirius at all? 
> 
> Pat:
> 
> Sorry to be so behind, but Christmas put me back and I just haven't 
> caught up yet!
> 
> To answer the question here, why frame Sirius?  Because, as we all 
> know, the WW was at war, and LV could have felt that the added bonus 
> of framing Sirius would accomplish two things for him: 
> 1.  by framing Sirius, he left Pettigrew's disguise a secret, 
> enabling the rat to still work for him in his animagus form, and,

> 2.  by 'outing' Sirius as the spy, he puts the Order in disorder: 
> making everyone in the Order suspicious of each other, and thereby, 
> less effective against him!
> 

Pippin:
Let's consider the situation if Godric's Hollow had succeeded (leaving
aside the meta issue that there'd be no Harry Potter books!), Pettigrew
is the one and only spy, and Lupin is loyal to Dumbledore.

1) Voldemort is still alive and kicking 
2) The Order is still actively opposing him
3) James, Lily and Harry are dead
4) Peter frames Sirius as per canon

Can Peter continue spying on the Order in rat form? Not for long.
Once it becomes clear that the spy is still active, the hunt will
be up again, and Sirius's story will get a hearing. Dumbledore
will believe him, Lupin will confirm, reluctantly, that Peter was an
animagus, and Voldemort's spy will be caught unless
he flees back to Voldemort for protection, as Peter had to do
in PoA.

So, aside from getting Sirius briefly tossed into Azkaban, the
frame job does Voldemort little good.

On the other hand, if Peter also was framed, then the plan might
have been for the real spy to eliminate him at the moment when
he confronted Sirius, leaving said personage free to continue
spying on the Order. Eventually Sirius's conviction would come
into question, as above, but the Order would be on a wild goose 
chase for the supposed Rat animagus spy.

Pippin