Spies, Lies and Self fullfilling prophecies

[spotsgal]

No: HPFGUIDX 146697

> > > Pippin:
> > > 
> > >  The plot to frame Sirius was underway before
> > > Godric's Hollow, from what Fudge and McGonagall say, so it's
> > > almost certain that Voldemort, not Peter, was behind it.

> > Pat:
> > I don't disbelieve you, but could you provide canon for this? 
 
> Pippin:
> The conversation at the Three Broomsticks, PoA ch 10, shows that
> Sirius was already under suspicion. McGonagall says Dumbledore 
> remained worried  after he learned that Sirius would be the Secret
> Keeper. Fudge says that Sirius seems to have planned a declaration 
> of support for You-Know-Who for "the moment of the Potters' death."

Christina:

I think this is something of a stretch.  *Somebody* was under
suspicion - McGonagall says that Dumbledore "was sure that somebody
close to the Potters had bee keeping You-Know-Who informed of their
movements."  His uneasiness about Sirius being the Potters' Secret
Keeper was because Dumbledore didn't want to take any chances -
obviously, one of James's friends was betraying him, and Dumbledore
offered himself up as the Secret Keeper as a safety measure.  If
Dumbledore had seriously suspected Sirius in particular, I doubt he
would ever have let James use him as the Secret Keeper, no matter
what.  Fudge's words are coming from the fact that Dumbledore knew
there was a spy, Sirius Black came out to be the lead suspect for the
passing of information that lead to the deaths of the Potters - he put
two and two together.

> Pippin:
> Fudge was Junior Minister in the Department of Magical Catastrophes
> at the time and closely involved in the investigation -- he's not 
> just quoting wild stories from the Daily Prophet here.

Christina:

The "investigation" of Sirius Black began when he killed the Potters.
 Fudge never says that there was evidence from prior to GH against
Sirius, and he never says that the Ministry (or anybody) had suspected
him specifically prior to that Halloween.  Also, take into
consideration Fudge's version of an "investigation" - Dumbledore says
that there was a spy in the Order, he gives testimony that Sirius was
the Secret Keeper, and eyewitnesses support Sirius's guilt.  Not such
bad evidence, but I highly doubt thought was put into finding evidence
for Sirius's supposed spying activities before GH.  It's emphasized in
the book that Fudge rushed to convict Sirius without a fair trial; for
somebody so eager to jump to conclusions, filling in the details isn't
very much of a stretch.  Again, if there had been any evidence (no
matter how manufactured) that pointed to Sirius being the spy prior to
the Potters' death, I can't see Dumbledore sitting on it.  It's just
somebody drawing a very obvious (and admittedly logical) conclusion. 
There has been a spy all along.  Here was have caught ourselves a spy.
 The same guy has been a spy all along.

> Pippin:
> Dumbledore says the Ministry can detect a killing curse "The 
> Ministry, on the other hand, knew at once that this was a wizard's 
> murder." -- HBP ch 17. So the Daily Prophet was probably correct in
> saying that only one curse was responsible for the deaths.

Christina:

Are we sure that they mean an actual killing curse?  I always thought
it seemed logical enough to assume that the act of blowing up the
street (so intense that it caused a crater that exposed the sewer
lines) would have easily killed everyone in the immediate vicinity. 
Otherwise, why blow up the street at all?  Furthermore, if Peter did
want to blow up the street, why go out of his way to kill Muggles with
an AK - surely the explosion would kill enough of them to serve his
purpose.  Stan says that the curse "blasted 'alf the street apart." 
Why expend the energy to do both acts when either one would suffice
alone?  So, I don't think it was any great feat of magic - I think it
was just a simple spell that was capable of exploding things, set on
high.  I would actually be hard-pressed to believe that any Muggles
would survive a blast like that to begin with.

> Pippin:
> If  Peter *did* perform the unheard of magical feat of killing
> twelve people with a single curse while holding his wand behind his
> back, he must have been thoroughly coached on how to do it. He
> doesn't seem capable of having come up with such original spell
> work on his own.

Christina:

All that would show is that Voldemort had been teaching Peter some
"tricks," which is highly likely, given the fact that Peter accuses
Sirius of the same.
 
> Pippin previously: 
> > Yet if Godric's Hollow had gone as Voldemort had planned,  framing
> > Sirius would  have been pointless from the point of view of 
> > protecting his spy --if the spy was really Pettigrew.

Christina:

Now I'm a bit confused.  Maybe you've addressed this before, but who
do you think *did* blow up the street and kill the Muggles?  Sirius
says that it was Peter, and he was obviously paying pretty close
attention.  As far as I know, you're not advocating ESE!Sirius, so I'm
at a bit of a loss.

Also, let's say that the Muggle-killing was a hefty piece of magic
after all.  Let's say that Voldemort even taught Peter said piece of
magic.  That doesn't necessarily mean that Voldemort taught Peter the
magic with the intent of framing Sirius.  You're right, there is *no*
reason for Voldemort to want Sirius framed.  Peter proves useful in
getting to Harry Potter, and so his work is basically done.  He's
finished as a spy either way, essentially.  There are only so many
people that are "close to the Potters" who could have been a spy, and
so Peter (or whoever you choose as your preferred spy) would have been
found out easily.  Losing a spy is a pain, but it is a small price to
pay for eliminating the kid prophecied to defeat you.

However, when the incident at Godric's Hollow doesn't go quite as
planned, well - then Peter is in trouble.  Maybe Sirius's ravings of a
Secret-Keeper switch will be taken seriously, maybe they won't (nobody
else was told of the switch, and Sirius has family history against
him).  It's also interesting to note that, while Peter certainly
doesn't make himself too scarce, he isn't the one that goes looking
for Sirius.  Sirius goes looking for him.  If Voldemort had had some
kind of grand plan to frame Sirius, there's no way Peter would have
left Sirius to his own devices.  Sirius could have very well gone
straight from GH to Dumbledore for help.

> Pippin:
> On the other hand, if Peter also was framed, then the plan might
> have been for the real spy to eliminate him at the moment when
> he confronted Sirius, leaving said personage free to continue
> spying on the Order. Eventually Sirius's conviction would come
> into question, as above, but the Order would be on a wild goose 
> chase for the supposed Rat animagus spy.

Christina:

I don't see how this would be any different than the alternate
scenario.  No matter who does the spying, if it continued after GH,
Dumbledore would be suspicious again.  With two of James's childhood
friends dead and only one left - the one that gave incriminating
information on Peter, no less - Dumbledore would have drawn the
obvious conclusions.

Christina,
who *will* be replying to your other post, asap