Werewolves and RL equivalents

[Mike]

No: HPFGUIDX 170474

> > Jen:  The presumption is they are in danger and yet no one 
> > focuses on it in the story except Lupin the next day!  While 
> > Lupin in werewolf form is running loose on the grounds, Fudge and 
> > Dumbledore appear to be more concerned about the Dementors and 
> > Snape is fixated on Dumbledore trusting his story over the Trio's 
> > and Black escaping again.  

Mike:
I've been reading this thread for two days wondering when somebody 
would bring up this next point. But it seems we are all focusing on 
the same things that Fudge, Snape, and DD are. ;)

I've reread both the first and second Hospital scenes (pre- and post 
time-turned) and nowhere in there is there any indication that either 
Snape or Fudge know what's happened with Lupin. In fact, there is no 
indication that Fudge even knew Lupin was involved at this point. 
There may well be the logical conjecture, between these two, that 
Lupin has transformed and is loose on the grounds. But they have no 
idea of the circumstances surrounding that transformation and whether 
or not Lupin was ever a danger to the kids. And they only speak of 
the near miss of the Dementors.

Most importantly, neither has been disavowed of the belief that 
Sirius Black is still an escaped murderer. Snape is particularly 
still convinced and argues with Dumbledore over this very point. So 
at the end of the night, when Snape storms out of the Hospital wing, 
he is still convinced that Sirius is a murderer and that Lupin has 
been helping him all year. And Dumbledore just won't believe him!

Might that be the reason why Snape outs Lupin? I can't remember who 
said it, but somebody mentioned that Snape's evidence of Lupin's 
complicity with Black is gone, so he has to resort to the only 
evidence he has left; Lupin is a werewolf. 



> > Jen: Then Dumbledore approves Harry and Hermione to go back out 
> > and wander around the grounds again- heck yeah I think it looks 
> > like all of them have lost their grip but none of the characters 
> > seem to  agree. 


> Magpie:
> Well, yeah. None of them bring it up as a priority. But I doubt 
> they'd have argued with someone who did bring it up. It's just a 
> slightly different thing--but not necessarily that important. Just 
> as DD isn't being shown being angry at having to let Lupin go, he's 
> also not angry at the kids being in danger. 

Mike:
I rather like the speculation that Dumbledore thinks that this will 
be a rather excellent adventure for Harry and Hermione. :-) Besides, 
in JKR's time-turning universe, Dumbledore already knows that the duo 
saved Buckbeak and cast a Patronus Charm that fended off a hundred 
Dementors, before he sends them back. He knows he didn't do this 
stuff. :-) The only thing he couldn't be sure of is whether they 
succeeded in rescuing Sirius, but that seems to be the easiest of the 
tasks at hand, and that's the information most stressed by DD in his 
briefing.



> > Jen: 
> > So Snape acted preemptively for some mystifying reason.
> > I mean, people are arguing he didn't do it to get Lupin 
> > fired and Snape's words had no bearing on Lupin's job 
> > prospects or career, so why did JKR make Snape part of 
> > the story? I don't see a purpose for him telling the 
> > students about Lupin if it had no meaning.

Mike:
Not mystifying to me. ;-) Snape wanted to do as much damage as he 
could to Lupin. The morning after sees no change in Snape's position 
vis-a-vis Lupin from the one he took in the Shack. Lupin *is still* 
Black's accomplice. Lupin helped Black get into the castle and Lupin 
hid the fact that Black was an Animagus. All things he *knew* going 
in or learned while hiding under Harry's IC. (He did not know Black's 
Animagus form, yet. He will receive that information rather abruptly 
in the Hospital wing at the end of GoF :D)

Since Lupin obviously transformed last night without his wolfsbane, 
Snape can still use that fact to get Lupin fired, even if Dumbledore 
doesn't believe the rest of his (Snape's) story. He *knows* 
Dumbledore can't keep Lupin once he's revealed to be a werewolf that 
has transformed into a "fully fledged monster" here on the castle 
grounds. (Speculation on Snape's part that it took place on the 
castle grounds, but a reasonable guess that noone of consequence 
could disprove)


> Magpie:
> <snip>  I think he told mostly because Snape wanted to tell 
> all year long--perhaps once Lupin blew it and went running 
> around he felt justified in ways he didn't before.

Mike:
Oh yes. Most definitely.

> Magpie:
> What he does seem to want is that he's known to be a werewolf 
> (which of course means he can't work--but I don't think 
> that's Snape's goal specifically).

Mike:
Right! And we've just come back full circle to Snape using Lupin's 
condition against him when he has no other proof of wrongdoing. 
Remember, at this time Snape does not know that Lupin had ever been a 
direct threat to the kids. If the only thing that happened that night 
was that Lupin ran around the Forbidden Forest, well, he's just one 
of many werewolves out there. But since Snape is still convinced of 
Lupin's complicity, he can feel justified in taking the bigoted 
position if it leads to *justice* in the end.


> Magpie:
> Given what we know about Snape I'd probably connect it to the 
> Prank, which turned on Lupin's condition being a secret. 
>  <snip>  
> So like, in Snape's mind, if Lupin thought he got away with 
> *everything* at least he didn't get away with this.

Mike:
Once again, Magpie, you and I agree. I too think it all stems from 
the Prank. And Snape has never gotten over his boyhood grudge.

This brings up a question, that I'm sure Pippin would like to expound 
on, ;-) Snape is on his "second chance" with Dumbledore. Where's 
Lupin's "second chance"? Could Lupin, and Sirius through his silence, 
have left out a few details from the explanation of the Prank? Might 
Lupin and Sirius already be on their "second chances"? Meaning that 
Lupin might not have been as innocent of events as he presented them 
to the Trio in the Shack.


> Magpie:
> Seriously, I can just so see Snape being so angry the next morning 
> and thinking, "Oh yeah, Remus you spineless little so-and-so. I'm 
> not covering up for you any more. This stops now."

Mike:
LOL. But of course, had Lupin only known a particular thing from 
Snape's past, I think he would have been holding the trump card.