LV's bigger plan (was:Fawkes possible absence)

[justcarol67]

No: HPFGUIDX 166356

Carol earlier:
> > Let's say, then, that it's no longer his sole or primary concern,
as it was in OoP. We certainly don't see him making any effort to
secure information on the prophecy in HBP, and we do see, all through
the book, a plot to kill Dumbledore.
> 
Jen responded: 
> Harry typically doesn't know Voldemort's plans in the middle of a
book, and we are essentially at that point after HBP. <snip> More than
that, what does the reader actually find out in 'Spinner's End'?  Only
what Bella, Narcissa and Snape claim to know and are willing to tell
each other.  I'm not saying the plot with Draco wasn't real, only
there's no guarantee the three of them are in on everything in LV's
mind.  They aren't accurate historians either, since  none of them
have a reason to fully trust the other. (Not to mention it's never
clear what Peter is doing there or if he is unknown quantity X in this
equation, that during all the drama taking place he wasn't back to 
eavesdropping.)

Carol responds:
Whatever else Voldemort may be planning, the plot to force Draco to
try to kill dumbledore, about which the three adults apparently know,
and the Vanishing Pla Cabinet Plan, about which snape, at least, does
not know, are undeniably real, as is the advantage to Voldemort if
Dumbledore dies. (I'm still hoping, however, that he'll develop a
false sense of security as a result.) To throw in a Prophecy plan with
no hints whatever would not be "playing fair." We still don't know
what was up at Spinner's end and snape's motives for taking the UV,
much less exactly what happened on the tower. To bring in the Prophecy
is to needlessly complicate a perfectly understandable, win-win plan
for Voldemort: either the plan succeeds, against all expectations, and
"the only one he ever feared" is dead, or it fails and he murders
Draco (and perhaps Narcissa) as revenge against Lucius Malfoy for
failing to get the Prophecy. (If he thought there were some other way
to get the Prophecy, why bother to punish Lucius? Just concentrate on
that.)

I do think that Trelawney is in danger and LV may try to get to her in
DH, but I see no evidence that he was trying to do so in HBP, where
the plot, despite some unanswered questions related to Snape, makes
perfect sense with regard to Voldemort.

As for Pettigrew, snape knows that he's been listening at doorways. He
expels him from the room and hits the door with some sort of spell
that sends Wormtail scurrying away? Do you really think that Snape,
himself a spy and the inventor of Muffliato, is going to let Wormtail
listen in on a potentially incriminating conversation? My guess is
that he put the same kind of charm on the door that Molly Weasley
placed on the kitchen door at 12 GP to keep them from listening in.
The most Wormtail could do is to report that the Black sisters came to
visit and Narcissa had some sort of request to make of Snape. But
notice that Wormtail is hunchbacked now, as if he's been suffering
multiple Crucios and torture, and that he really doesn't want to go
back to Voldemort and request some other assignment. My feeling is
that Wormtail would rather suffer Snape's derision and contempt than
Voldemort's torture, and he's going to stay where he is. But even if
I'm wrong, I doubt that he has anything to report.

Jen:  <snip> Rather than forgetting the prophecy, he's likely *more*
> obsessed now with discovering if there is any information in the
second half to explain why none of his powers are working against
Harry.  He doesn't have the benefit of Dumbledore's explanations <g>
and has no idea what he is missing.

Carol:
And yet he's clearly not concentrating *solely* on the Prophecy as he
was in OoP. And even then he had other plans in action, including
sending ambassadors to the giants. Now he's starting to murder again,
using his Death Eaters and the giants to attack various people and
create an atmosphere of fear and tension. But the focus of his
attention seems to be the Draco plot, as we see from the increasing
intensity of the threats against Draco as the end of the year nears.
Granted, Harry doesn't know what's in LV's mind, but JKR has other
ways of letting us know what's going on, and what she lets us see,
misleading and incomplete and ambiguous as it is, relates to Snape and
Draco.

The glimpses we get of Trelawney in HBP suggest that she does have
some real powers as a Seer of which she herself is unaware (she keeps
rereading the cards because she doesn't believe they can be right),
but there's no indication that the Draco plot in any way involves her.

I'm not arguing that Voldemort isn't ultimately focused on killing
Harry, but I'm sure he saw the death of Albus Dumbledore as a
necessary first step. Maybe he'll go back to trying to find out about
the Prophecy in DH. Maybe. But it clearly is not his sole concern, nor
is it apparently his primary concern, in HBP as it was in OoP, where
all his efforts were focused on it.

Carol, who agrees that "Spinner's End" conceals as much as it reveals
but thinks that its secrets relate to the Spinner and have nothing to
do with Trelawney