GoF CH 27-29 Post DH look/ Snape and Harry redux

[Carol]

No: HPFGUIDX 182246

Alla wrote:
> 
> <snip> And my evidence is that we KNOW of order members no matter
how few who survived the war, so who is to say that Potters would not
have  been among them, we know of even MORE order members who survived
the first war, so who is to say that Potters would not have been among
those who at least would have a misfortune to die at the very end. It
would have given them SIXTEEN YEARS of family life and being with 
their son, even if that would have meant life during the war. And it
is interesting when we are talking about small survival rates about
Order members, they are not actually that small, it is not like three
order members survived out of 100 or 1000. How many of them? 10? 12?
(not reading OOP yet) And how many survived First war at least? 
Dumbledore, Lupin, Hagrid, Weasleys ( if we count them as helpers),
Moody. Not bad at all, I would say.
> 
> And my evidence again is that Potters SUCCESFULLY defied Voldemort 
three times. Why again they could not have continued doing it if they
were not specifically targeted as prophecy couple? 
> 
> And my evidence being as well that plenty of prophecies do not come 
> true and Dumbledore went on and on  about the only reason this one 
> came true is because Voldemort believed it. And um, who have 
> Voldemort a reason to believe in prophecy. That would be Snape, since 
> without him Voldemort would not have ever learned about it in the 
> first place.
> 
> 
> Julie:
> So, *could* Voldemort have been defeated, allowing the Potters
> and every other Order member to survive, and Harry to grow up
> happy and loved in a stable and free WW? We can't discount a
> remote possibility but it still seems VERY unlikely from the
> evidence.
> 
> Alla:
> 
> Not from my evidence.
> 
> Julie:
>  Much more likely, Harry would have died along with
> his parents and most other Order members and their families,
> or been spared because he was still a baby then raised in
> a Voldy-ruled WW and schooled at a Slytherin-only Hogwarts.
> 
> Alla:
> 
> Why? This scenario surely does make Snape looks better, because that 
> downplays the significance of horrible act he committed IMO. After 
> all, if Potters would have died anyways, Snape could tell himself 
> that no matter what he would have done, it would have still played 
> the same way. No, sorry.  I can not discount this scenario of course, 
> since all that we are discussing here are canon based speculations, 
> but I believe that my scenario is just as likely to come true as 
> yours. But this is not even my point. My point is that even if my 
> scenario had little chance to come true, it still had SOME chance BUT 
> FOR SNAPE'S ACTIONS IMO.
> 
> Julie:
> Snape very likely saved Harry and the WW from a terrible fate,
> even if he did so without a shred of noble intent initially.
> 
> Alla:
> 
> Yes, I will give you Snape saving WW from a terrible fate **without a 
> shred of noble intent initially**. But I am speechless at the 
> assertion of Snape saving Harry from terrible fate by telling the 
> prophecy. Which fate that 
> would be that Snape saved him from? Snape saved him from growing up 
> with loving family possibility ( yes, it is just a possibility, but 
> that is all I am discussing – possibilities in this thread and no, I 
> cannot discount this possibility)
> 
> Or maybe Snape saved Harry from not having that scar on that 
> forehead? Yes, that would be a terrible fate indeed to not be 
> subjected to visions that Voldemort gave him and to be in physical 
> pain from them as well.
> 
> Yes, I am being sarcastic of course, but I think that Snape saved 
> Harry from terrible fate is a very weak argument, IMO.
> 
> Julie:
> So, yes, the Potters *may* have been alive after surviving that
> day, living as a happy family raising their well-adjusted son.
> 
> Alla:
> 
> Yes, that is what I am saying.
> 
> Julie:
> But very probably not, no matter what Snape did or didn't do.
> 
> Alla:
> 
> No, sorry, I think the answer is very much depending on what Snape 
> did.
> 
> Julie:
> He simply didn't have the power to change their ultimate fate.
> 
> Alla:
> 
> LOL. I can give him a hint – not deliver prophecy to Voldemort and 
> here you go, their fate may have been changed, no prophecy couple, no 
> Chosen one.
> 
> Julie:
> (Dumbledore, however, is another matter, but not the subject
> of this discussion.)
> 
> Alla:
> 
> Of course he could change their fate, but again without Snape this 
> would have never started IMO.
> 
> 
> JMO,
> 
> Alla
>

Carol responds:

But without the Prophecy and the events at Godrics' Hollow, Voldemort
would have continued in full power, killing as he went. Take away the
fourteen-year respite that resulted from Godric's Hollow, and you have
 one continuous Voldie war in which Voldie is killing all of his
enemies, whether they're Order members who've defied him (just how
they could do that is unclear; they certainly can't outduel him) or
powerful Ministry officials like Amanda Bones. Godric's Hollow, bad as
it was for the Potters (and for the Chosen One who wishes he hadn't
been chosen), was the *only* reason that Voldemort stopped killing
people and the Aurors could arrest most of his followers. Just because
Lupin, Mad-eye et al. survived to that point doesn't mean that they,
or the Potters or any other Order members, could have survived if
Voldemort had not brought fate upon himself by acting to thwart the
Prophecy.

To get an idea of what would have happened, we have to eliminate that
fourteen-year respite, including the time when Voldie was in fetal
form and "only" killed or ordered the deaths of four people (I'm
including Mr. Crouch even though he wasn't killed with Voldie's wand).
Even in OoP, he's concentrating on the Prophecy and recouping his
losses, gathering new followers. Only HBP and DH and the reports of
people old enough to remember VW1 give us any idea what it was like.
Hogwarts remained Hogwarts only because of Dumbledore. With him dead,
and surely his death would have been Voldemort's prime objective, a
happy life at Hogwarts, or in Godric's Hollow, would have been no part
of Harry's childhood even if he survived to school age.

IOW, the years between Godric's Hollow and the resurrection of
Voldemort have to be taken out of the picture. Instead, we have an
undefeated, to all intents and purposes immortal Voldemort whose
followers (according to Lupin) outnumbered the Order members ten to
one and the Order members being picked off one by one.

Yes, Snape reported the Prophecy to his master, the leader of a
terrorist organization, with no qualms about the consequences to
innocent people. But that action, and his subsequent remorse, had
unanticipated consequences that made the ultimate defeat of Voldemort
possible.

So I agree with you that Snape changed everything. I just don't agree
that he robbed Harry of a happy, normal life. A happy, normal life
simply was not possible in the wartorn WW that would have been
unavoidable had Voldemort not been hit by a rebounding AK at Godric's
Hollow.

Your "SIXTEEN YEARS of family life" would more likely be "SIXTEEN
YEARS of protracted war" under a Voldemort whose powers are
undiminished. The entire McKinnon family was killed, children and all,
and they weren't "the targeted couple," just a family of Order
members. The Prewitt brothers were killed in a battle with five DEs.
Edgar Bones. brother of Amanda Bones, was killed. Voldemort personally
killed Dorcas Meadowes (just as he later killed Amelia Bones
personally). Caradoc Dearborn vanished (just like Florean Fortescue).
The "only ever found bits of" Benjy Fenwick. Not one of those people
was killed because of the Prophecy. They were killed because the Order
members were being targeted. the Potters were being targeted for the
same reason. And had it not been for the Prophecy (and Snape's going
to DD for help), they would not have had the protection of the
Fidelius Charm (breached because of sirius Black's bad advice and
Peter Pettigrew's perfidy).

IMO, the *only* chance the Potters had of surviving the continued and
unending Voldiewar was the revelation of the Prophecy and a Fidelius
charm maintained by Dumbledore. And how the war could have been won
and Voldie defeated without Voldie creating his own nemesis, I don't
know. Dumbledore could not have done it, and if he couldn't, who
could? The Prophecy would have to have been fulfilled in some other
way, perhaps with an adult Harry, but how he could have acquired
special powers and a soul bit without Lily's sacrifice, which depends
on Snape's request to spare her, I don't know. it seems to me that
events transpired in the only way they could have don to create "the
one with the power to defeat the Dark Lord." Otherwise, the Horcruxes
would have kept him alive and in power and undefeatable.

Carol, who thinks that *no one* could have saved the WW from Voldemort
had Voldemort not acted to thwart the Prophecy, unwittingly setting in
motion his own defeat by so doing